Analysis of NASDAQ 100 (H1) - Technical Breakdown (Sep 26 2024)
1. Wyckoff Accumulation & Distribution Phases:
This chart heavily applies Wyckoff's methodology, which is built on the phases of market accumulation and distribution. The schematic is drawn to reflect the following phases:
Phase A marks the preliminary support (PSY) and automatic rally (AR), where initial buying pressure emerges after a prolonged downtrend, indicating early signs of accumulation.
Phase B represents a secondary test (ST) and an upward thrust (UT) within the trading range. This phase signals the testing of supply and the building of a cause for future price movement.
Phase C typically includes a "spring" or test of support, but this chart appears to be leaning towards a distribution pattern as the price tests the upper boundary.
We can observe signs of a Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B, suggesting a potential shift from accumulation to distribution, as supply overwhelms demand at higher price levels.
2. Elliott Wave Count:
The Elliott Wave theory, which describes price movements in predictable wave patterns, is applied to the broader structure. The chart indicates the presence of a five-wave impulsive pattern (labeled 1-5):
Wave 1 seems to have completed near the automatic rally (AR).
Wave 2 traces back towards the end of the rally, with Wave 3 extending beyond the buying climax (BC).
The final wave (Wave 5) culminates with an upward thrust (UT) in Phase B, which could signal the completion of the current cycle, leading to a bearish correction or retracement.
3. Harmonic Patterns:
There is a clear integration of harmonic patterns within this chart, which is often used to predict potential reversal zones based on Fibonacci ratios. The highlighted zone with Fibonacci extensions (0.618, 1.236) suggests a potential area for a retracement:
The butterfly harmonic pattern outlined between Phase A and Phase B suggests that after the buying climax (BC), the price is primed for a pullback as it approaches key Fibonacci resistance levels.
The Bearish Bat pattern shows convergence near the upper resistance level (around 19,900-20,120), which corresponds with the end of Wave 5 in the Elliott Wave structure.
4. Fibonacci Levels and Retracements:
Key Fibonacci retracement levels have been plotted, notably the 0.618 and 1.236 extensions. These levels serve as potential resistance or support zones in the chart.
The price action initially retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level (around 19,567), marking a key level for potential support.
If the 1.236 extension level (19,576) holds as resistance, it could validate the bearish scenario suggested by the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic pattern convergence.
5. Volume and Price Momentum:
Though the volume is not displayed, the POC (Point of Control) is marked, which represents the price level where the highest volume of trading occurs within the given period. It aligns with a strong support zone at around 19,567.
RSI Indicator (represented by the red line below the price chart) appears to show weakening momentum, particularly in Phase B, further supporting the potential for a downward move as the price begins to test upper resistance levels.
6. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Model Reference:
There is a reference to ICT’s Classic Weekly Profile. This model suggests a predictable weekly price structure where Monday typically creates a low or high for the week, followed by a mid-week reversal.
The chart points to a possible reversal towards the middle of the week, supported by the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic setups.
7. Key Resistance and Support Zones:
Several key levels are highlighted:
Upper Resistance (19,962.5 - 20,120): These zones, indicated by the buying climax (BC) and upper thrust (UT), are likely to serve as strong resistance as the price begins to retrace.
Support Zones: The area near 19,567 (0.618 retracement) and 19,490 marks a significant support zone, where demand could potentially re-enter if prices pull back sharply.
8. Wave Invalidation Points:
The chart includes an invalidating point for Wave 4. If the price breaches this level, the current wave structure would be invalidated, and a deeper correction might be expected. The potential invalidation could occur near 19,322, signaling a breakdown in the bullish impulse wave count.
Conclusion:
In summary, this NASDAQ 100 chart reflects a complex but highly informative mix of Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory, and Harmonic Patterns with Fibonacci retracements. The ongoing phase seems to indicate a transition towards a bearish correction, particularly as prices approach major resistance zones around 19,900 to 20,120. Traders should monitor key support levels near 19,567 and below, as a breach of these levels would likely trigger deeper corrective moves in line with the Wyckoff and Elliott Wave structures.
This chart heavily applies Wyckoff's methodology, which is built on the phases of market accumulation and distribution. The schematic is drawn to reflect the following phases:
Phase A marks the preliminary support (PSY) and automatic rally (AR), where initial buying pressure emerges after a prolonged downtrend, indicating early signs of accumulation.
Phase B represents a secondary test (ST) and an upward thrust (UT) within the trading range. This phase signals the testing of supply and the building of a cause for future price movement.
Phase C typically includes a "spring" or test of support, but this chart appears to be leaning towards a distribution pattern as the price tests the upper boundary.
We can observe signs of a Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B, suggesting a potential shift from accumulation to distribution, as supply overwhelms demand at higher price levels.
2. Elliott Wave Count:
The Elliott Wave theory, which describes price movements in predictable wave patterns, is applied to the broader structure. The chart indicates the presence of a five-wave impulsive pattern (labeled 1-5):
Wave 1 seems to have completed near the automatic rally (AR).
Wave 2 traces back towards the end of the rally, with Wave 3 extending beyond the buying climax (BC).
The final wave (Wave 5) culminates with an upward thrust (UT) in Phase B, which could signal the completion of the current cycle, leading to a bearish correction or retracement.
3. Harmonic Patterns:
There is a clear integration of harmonic patterns within this chart, which is often used to predict potential reversal zones based on Fibonacci ratios. The highlighted zone with Fibonacci extensions (0.618, 1.236) suggests a potential area for a retracement:
The butterfly harmonic pattern outlined between Phase A and Phase B suggests that after the buying climax (BC), the price is primed for a pullback as it approaches key Fibonacci resistance levels.
The Bearish Bat pattern shows convergence near the upper resistance level (around 19,900-20,120), which corresponds with the end of Wave 5 in the Elliott Wave structure.
4. Fibonacci Levels and Retracements:
Key Fibonacci retracement levels have been plotted, notably the 0.618 and 1.236 extensions. These levels serve as potential resistance or support zones in the chart.
The price action initially retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level (around 19,567), marking a key level for potential support.
If the 1.236 extension level (19,576) holds as resistance, it could validate the bearish scenario suggested by the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic pattern convergence.
5. Volume and Price Momentum:
Though the volume is not displayed, the POC (Point of Control) is marked, which represents the price level where the highest volume of trading occurs within the given period. It aligns with a strong support zone at around 19,567.
RSI Indicator (represented by the red line below the price chart) appears to show weakening momentum, particularly in Phase B, further supporting the potential for a downward move as the price begins to test upper resistance levels.
6. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Model Reference:
There is a reference to ICT’s Classic Weekly Profile. This model suggests a predictable weekly price structure where Monday typically creates a low or high for the week, followed by a mid-week reversal.
The chart points to a possible reversal towards the middle of the week, supported by the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic setups.
7. Key Resistance and Support Zones:
Several key levels are highlighted:
Upper Resistance (19,962.5 - 20,120): These zones, indicated by the buying climax (BC) and upper thrust (UT), are likely to serve as strong resistance as the price begins to retrace.
Support Zones: The area near 19,567 (0.618 retracement) and 19,490 marks a significant support zone, where demand could potentially re-enter if prices pull back sharply.
8. Wave Invalidation Points:
The chart includes an invalidating point for Wave 4. If the price breaches this level, the current wave structure would be invalidated, and a deeper correction might be expected. The potential invalidation could occur near 19,322, signaling a breakdown in the bullish impulse wave count.
Conclusion:
In summary, this NASDAQ 100 chart reflects a complex but highly informative mix of Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory, and Harmonic Patterns with Fibonacci retracements. The ongoing phase seems to indicate a transition towards a bearish correction, particularly as prices approach major resistance zones around 19,900 to 20,120. Traders should monitor key support levels near 19,567 and below, as a breach of these levels would likely trigger deeper corrective moves in line with the Wyckoff and Elliott Wave structures.
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