Weekly Analyses: Uptrend but not without a correction first !

8月19日

18/08/24 - 23/08/24

Welcome to another weekly analyses idea!

There is no doubt that NAS100 is back on its bullish rally to new ATHs following the major sell off. Last week the bulls established their dominance barely giving room to any retracments as the 1H TF was the biggest TF to signal a HL.

Now that the daily LH is biggest TF to signal a type of High at the 61.8% retracement level, all TFs from the Day down to the 1H are at their highest point. Historically, in a given uptrend, NAS100 typically reserves it's retracement period for Mon-Wed to signal it's weekly Low point before ending the week at its highest point.

On my chart I have outlined what appears to be a strong area of resistance at 19,594.0 where price previously signalled a 23H LH and rejected a 23H HL. As long as price continues to stay below this area for the beginning of the week, the retracement phase is valid. Note that the sells are only retracements to signal a HL on some of the smaller TFs before resuming it's main trend move to create new highs. HLs and HH always define an uptrend.

On the 1H TF:

This retracment is further confirmed by the double top 1H HHs signalled.

On the 4H TF:

Using my fibs on the 4H chart, I expect price to continue it's retracements down to 18,839.2 at the 38.2% volatility level 18,470.4 at the 61.8% retracement level.

On the Daily TF:

Historically, NAS100 will begin it's retracement at the 61.8% level but the main retracement tends to occur at the 78.6% level. So for this week, since the Daily LH currently sits at the 61.8% level I do not expect a deep retracement during this period but rather just a correction to signal its HL on the 4H TF before continuing back up to the 78.6% retracement level.

Trading plan for the week:
Sell entry: 19,508.15.
Hold trade until Tuesday or Wednesday until it signals a 4H HL at one of the following TPs of interest.
Potential TPs:
- 18,839.2 at the 38.2% volatility level
- 18,470.4 at the 61.8% retracement level (very unlikely)

After which I will close and enter buys and hold for the rest of the week as the Daily LH fills the imbalance gap highlighted in purple and continues to make it's way up to the 78.6% retracement level.