A case for a Short on Natural Gas

2023年9月29日

A simple scenario with 3 elements that might occur for a potential shorting setup. In case a new high is formed and resistance is met at the orange line with signs of a potential turnaround, the case for the short becomes even more relevant if a divergence on Awesome Oscillator appears. There is an interesting support curved trend line following the previous lows of the waves of the market, and if this green level is broken the pullback could see this going somewhere from 3.1 to 2.9.

Any short position in the green can be carefully managed with tight stop loss or exit if bullish momentum catches steam, especially if the opposite scenario of an AO divergence is met, signaling the potential end of the pullback which could turn out to be just a correction in the overall bullish direction of the price.

On the other hand, this could also be the end of this bull run and bring the price back down around 2.83 where most of the previous wave lows have been formed.

2023年10月2日

註釋

3 Candlestick shadows at the support curve, then a break of it. No testing the orange resistance and the divergence scenario is out of the question. Currently the price is at a potential support level because of previous highs and lows. The reaction to this level will tell us if the bears are really in this move and if the bulls don't have enough to push it back up.

2023年10月2日

註釋

Bullish engulfing at the support level. Two potential paths highlighted on the snapshot. I really believe there could be a resistance zone above (marked with the rectangle) in case the price will reach that level.

2023年10月3日

註釋

A test and a bounce from the green curve as resistance, right in the zone of the purple rectangle mentioned in the previous update. The bull move was decent, so this rectangle could be revisited if the bears don't hold to the momentum.

2023年10月4日

註釋

After breaking the purple rectangle zone, the price has been following the green support line turned into resistance like a magnet. Approaching the Orange resistance soon. Do the bulls still have momentum?

2023年10月6日

註釋

The short idea was a dud, not all 3 elements occurred, the support level did hold, and the bull run broke through the main resistance lines. There was a good long opportunity at the test of the orange line after the break. Great run for the bulls.