Is Nat Gas on the verge of buckling?

According to last weeks Commitment of Traders report (COT) commercial hedgers, more commonly known as smart money hedgers established a new bearish extreme on Natural Gas. They are currently -97,039 contracts short, a change of -3,469 contracts from the week prior. It’s important to note when smart money hedgers reach an extreme they tend to drive the markets in the coming days/weeks. Non-Commercials and Non-Reportable traders are net-long on this commodity. When Commercial hedgers reach an extreme, as they are now, the Non-Commercials usually find themselves on the wrong side of the trade (when the market turns). The technical chart suggests we are at a multi-year resistance zone (3), which coincides nicely with the data.