NCLH sweet trading

2020年3月30日

Now to note on some of my trades went, well not great due to the virus. HL options expired and everything pretty much dropped. Even though I had some bear options on amd and spce. The virus didn't give a dam about it and if you were a bear you were lucky a little if you weren't reading the virus early stages in China, which AMD dump was given.

Now on to NCLH and why I'm bullish.

First the news
-On friday trump signed the 2trillion dollar stimulaus package with 4trillion set aside in case the 2trillion fails...hint hint it will fail.
-Now NCLH and the cruise lines weren't in the relief help in the bill, so on Friday and today they tanked with fear
- Trump has stated he will be buying/bailing them out with only NCLH leaving his mouth, so NCLH could be a safe accumulation phase and probably the most volital stock...I love it
-NCLH, only one I heard, is proactive and leasing their ships to the US gov to fight the virus and help treat people.
-One concern is that their staff has been reported lying about what NCLH is doing, yet the company told their emplyees to stop spreading rumors and the lies.

Now the virus, yes the virus is needed to do TA with uncertain so lets cover global news on it.
-USA becomes number one in case, yet still fewer deaths besides in major cites/high destiny population
-Vaccine/treatment is suppose to come later this fall, yet the average time of a vaccine is over a year, so next year is likely candidate to end the virus/be able to treat it.
-More and more world leaders are catching the virus and could cancel/delay the US elections.

Now into NCLH TA
-Side note I read that there have been alot of put sellers at the $10, yet take it with a grain of salt during this uncertainty and may be just stupid money against crusies.
-Now overview on the lines:
-the purple box is the range a bought NCLH on March 19 with the first blue horizontal line being a sell before it went to $20.
-Green line at $9.88 is todays buy near market open with that insane dump with fear from friday one could say
-Second blue line is the low of march 25-26 which could be a top with this buy in with the idea we could get into a tight range before making the big move.
-First red box of 30% is from todays buy to the low mar 24 before it had its move to $20. The second one is from todays buy to the low of the trading range of mar 25-26
-Emas are still far apart and looks towards more downside
-MACD looks like its gonna go bullish with a crossover as the selling platues out, could make another hill so still risky trade
-RSI is oversold, but not deadly oversold, just oversold by today.
-Volume is dropping and have an expected massive move soon since volume is still up there as today bulls hold the low $10 range.


I'm bullish on NCLH cause it was hit one of the hardest since china came out with the virus early this year. From what I read NCLH is the most proactive crusie line and during this bear trend in the market, I believe sub $10 or whenever you are confident there is hugh potential and upside. Also going on the assumption as the president said they will bail/buy out NCLH after discussion and them leasing their ships out is postive news to accumulate on and could get a bigger cut when they get their releif. Long esposer may hurt, but during this time and with a cheap price this is a great swing trading stock during this market.