Welcome to the real world Uncle Sam!

3月10日

The market can withstand a lot of pressure.

It can handle:

• the dawn of "fake news" and outright "lying"
  
• the pollution and "enshitification" of social media
  
• imperialist ideas of a Gaza takeover
  
• partnering with a Russian totalitarian state
  
• overhyping of AI and Nvidia's overpricing
  
• populist politics
  
• unworldly valuations of tech stocks
  

What it cannot handle is:

• Upsetting the world order
  
• Undermining of NATO, Europe, and allies
  
• Starting trade wars with your best friends
  
• Establishing tariffs which will harm the US economy
  

I love the US stock market, and US animal spirits, it's the best in the world.

But when risk rises, then secure investments like bonds/treasuries become the smart money move. Stocks become "risk off"

Risk is rising, tariffs will pressure inflation, inflation kills economies and markets.

The European defense industry will benefit, the US consumer will pay higher prices.

Higher risk, could mean a lack of confidence, and confidence powers the stock market.

Batton Down the Hatches.

Trading Note: I sold all my US holdings on Tuesday, at the break of the double top neckline (see chart).

My target price is the 2021 high, before the one-year bear market. Its a big drop, I give it a 60-70% chance.

RSI & ROC Negative Medium-term divergences
Of course this could all change if Trump backtracks on trade wars, tariffs and imperialist rhetoric.
But until then, enjoy the ride.

4月3日

交易進行

We are rapidly approaching the target. In one to two months, we should reach our goal. Be cautious of false rallies and short-term presidential boosts.

4月4日

註釋

Wow, a 10% drop in three days, this trade may be achieved in weeks, not months.

4月16日

註釋

Target hit and bounce, get ready for another target hit. I have lived through 4 major market crashes. I know what they look like. My MOSES system works, and I am still waiting to get back in.