Newmont's recent price action, combined with the strength in gold, is starting to flash a familiar pattern — one that, historically, has preceded major rallies. With gold trading firmly above $2,500/oz and Newmont delivering strong free cash flow ($1.2B in Q1), the fundamental backdrop couldn’t be more supportive. This is no longer a “cheap optionality” gold miner — it’s leaner, focused on Tier 1 assets, and finally starting to act like the cash-generating machine it is.
From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the $48–$50 resistance zone was a key moment. There's now very little historical supply between current levels and the $80–85 range, and beyond that — open air until the psychologically charged $100 level. The current setup could be interpreted as either a classic cup and handle or an inverse head and shoulders pattern. In both cases, the structure targets a move of roughly +74% from the breakout — aligning almost perfectly with what history suggests.
Zooming out, Newmont has just completed a sixth historical breakout from long-term consolidation — following similar ones in 1979, 1986, 2001, 2016, 2019, and now again in March 2025. Each of those previous breakouts was accompanied by a confirmed bullish crossover in the 3-Year Distance % from Moving Average (MA), where price momentum pushed the indicator decisively above the zero line. The five prior rallies saw NEM increase by 156%, 302%, 208%, 63%, and 112% respectively.
Given that this time the breakout comes above all-time highs, the setup feels even stronger — and the path to $100 looks not only feasible, but statistically probable. The presence of a powerful long-term base, macro tailwinds, and renewed institutional interest in gold miners all point in the same direction.
If this move plays out like previous cycles, Newmont won’t just grind higher — it could rerate entirely, especially if capital rotation flows back into large-cap gold producers. Keep in mind: this is the largest publicly traded gold miner, with a robust balance sheet and solid dividend, in an environment where gold is hitting nominal records and fiat credibility is under pressure.
📈 Watch price behavior as it approaches $80–85 — a successful retest and continuation would make the $100 target all the more compelling.
Let me know your thoughts — are institutions coming back to the gold miners, or will momentum continue favoring the smaller silver plays and explorers?
From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the $48–$50 resistance zone was a key moment. There's now very little historical supply between current levels and the $80–85 range, and beyond that — open air until the psychologically charged $100 level. The current setup could be interpreted as either a classic cup and handle or an inverse head and shoulders pattern. In both cases, the structure targets a move of roughly +74% from the breakout — aligning almost perfectly with what history suggests.
Zooming out, Newmont has just completed a sixth historical breakout from long-term consolidation — following similar ones in 1979, 1986, 2001, 2016, 2019, and now again in March 2025. Each of those previous breakouts was accompanied by a confirmed bullish crossover in the 3-Year Distance % from Moving Average (MA), where price momentum pushed the indicator decisively above the zero line. The five prior rallies saw NEM increase by 156%, 302%, 208%, 63%, and 112% respectively.
Given that this time the breakout comes above all-time highs, the setup feels even stronger — and the path to $100 looks not only feasible, but statistically probable. The presence of a powerful long-term base, macro tailwinds, and renewed institutional interest in gold miners all point in the same direction.
If this move plays out like previous cycles, Newmont won’t just grind higher — it could rerate entirely, especially if capital rotation flows back into large-cap gold producers. Keep in mind: this is the largest publicly traded gold miner, with a robust balance sheet and solid dividend, in an environment where gold is hitting nominal records and fiat credibility is under pressure.
📈 Watch price behavior as it approaches $80–85 — a successful retest and continuation would make the $100 target all the more compelling.
Let me know your thoughts — are institutions coming back to the gold miners, or will momentum continue favoring the smaller silver plays and explorers?
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