NEO - Could It Be....The ONE..? Possible Scenarios

已更新

Decided to post a main analysis for NEOBTC, since the NEOUSD pairing doesn't seem to get as much attention. If you've been following my analysis at all, you'll see that I entered a long term trade at 2030 with my TRX profits, with a stop loss in the 1900 area (I forget where, specifically, since I've removed it for now). I did end up adding more at 2175 after the confirmed breakout. I did not set a stop loss, and I'm glad I didn't, because we retraced pretty heavily at first and I would've been knocked out of my trade. Since then, price has increased between 15-20%, although TRX has increased by a greater amount. Oh well. I'm trying this out as a long term trade, as I'm betting on a surprise turnaround in long term NEO sentiment. As you can see, we've broken out of the inverse head and shoulders neckline and have tested it as support. Additionally, NEO has been breaking upwards from what might normally look like bearish patterns. To me, this signals the beginning of a trend reversal. On top of that, we have four consecutive green candles on the weekly chart for the first time since the last reversal against Bitcoin.

In my first NEO write-up, I used the log chart and predicted a drop to the $4-7 area once $16 broke down. We ventured into my buying zone (a lot of other people were looking at this area as well). I thought NEO could go down to $3.60, but it hasn't so far. It still could, of course, but I thought this had a high probability of being bottom, based on the reaction in that area. You can see that analysis here:

Given this analysis, I'm led to believe we should target the 2620 resistance zone (in purple), especially if we break that pesky 2400 resistance. On the USD chart, we have resistance in the $12-13 area. Another reason to be bullish is that we've somewhat managed to hold above/near the 2340 area, which was the bottom of the last consolidation zone before the Bitcoin selloff in November. Daily and Weekly RSI both still have a fair amount of upside as well, and we're on the verge of breaking out of resistance on the Daily RSI.

HOWEVER, Bitcoin has been showing signs of uncertainty and weakness, so we can't rule out a possibility that this will just be a failed breakout. There are three possible scenarios on this chart. Caution is needed in the current market conditions, so if you were to buy on the breakout of 2400, for instance, a stop loss would be recommended.

This is not necessarily a trade setup and this is NOT financial advice. NEO has been a low-performer the entire year and is a risky play. You choose what to do with your money. This is just to show how I've been viewing the NEO price action, and why I've shifted from bearish to bullish. NEO has been on my radar for a while, and I kept kicking myself for not buying at $100 when it went all the way up close to $200. I'm glad I held off until now, needless to say. I might end up selling some if the market starts to look bad again, however.

-Victor Cobra

註釋

Looks like someone market sold and tested the previous resistance as support. The coins were immediately bought up. XRP is heading upwards, so this could be a sign that the market will finally move up. We need 2200 to hold though, ideally.

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Probably a decent buying opportunity with a stop loss below 2195 or so.

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So you see why it would have been good to set a stop loss when trading this. The market has chosen a direction, and that direction is down. I've been saying the last several days that I've been getting some warning signs that we were going to drop hard. Now it looks like we'll probably follow one of the more bearish lines on this chart. If 2100 breaks, we may have to retest the bottom area between 1600-1800. A number of alts (NEO included) do look like they've bottomed on their Bitcoin ratios. I think it's very possible we're about to see the final capitulation the market has been waiting for. The selling pressure has been so extreme since the breakdown.

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So far, we're following either my blue or green scenario in this chart. If we break above the red line in the 2240 area, we might go on to test the 2400 zone (light blue). However, if we break down below 2070-2085, we will likely test the 1890 broken resistance and the top of the broken triangle (green scenario). Daily RSI still looks like it could use a cool-off, but it looks good on lower timeframes. What's crazy is that I originally had my stop loss set at 2085, but I ended up removing it because I think the market is too close to a bottom for me to be playing around with day trading. Don't want to miss out on a move if I'm away. Had I kept that stop loss, we would've been dangerously close to it yesterday (2086, in fact!). Anyway, here's what I'm looking at:

註釋

Very close to breaking down here. Will it be green or blue? I suppose we could also bounce at the 2050 area and ascending support zone (red X). If that fails to hold, we will likely head down to 1900 at least.

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Looks like we're following the green scenario and headed down for a retest of the broken triangle (currently in the high 1800's). Something interesting to note is that we've broken our downtrend on the ETH ratio. I like looking at other pairings, as it shows how money moves around the market. Perhaps we can get a significant increase on this pairing, at least and target the red area for a potential breakout. A move above that red zone would be an opportunity to go long.

註釋

We also have somewhat decent support here (purple), since this was the breakout zone after the 1600 bottom.

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Looks like instead of following any of my scenarios, we've simply held the 2000 support and bounced back above small uptrend line. If we can hold above for the next 4 hour candle close, this would be incredibly bullish. It would be similar to TRX's price action in its accumulation zone before it took off. This is why I'm glad I removed my stop loss. I would've been stopped out yesterday in both BTC value and USD value (2085 and $7.18 respectively).

註釋

Looks like we've held rather well. As long as bulls can keep the pressure on above these two red support lines, we could pop back up to test the 2400 resistance. If that breaks, my 2600 target will be in the cards.

註釋

Still barely holding this area. However, it's interesting to note that the NEOETH ratio has increased a little bit, since that chart looked much more like a reversal was immanent. Or perhaps money will just flow from ETH to NEO, given the hard fork delay. This could indicate some further upside, despite the selloff that just happened. We need to keep an eye on this current support level. If it breaks below again....hesitant to even name targets because right now the buying and selling doesn't seem to be too technically driven.

註釋

Looks like instead of that little red wedge I had drawn, we are instead in a rising channel. This would put our next bullish target around 2500, if we continue to hold this level.

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We're heading down to test the lower support of the channel. If it breaks, we can expect to head down to at least the 1840-50 area. However, there have been so many fake moves in the market recently that it's possible we don't even make it down there. The market looks really weak right now though. If the market decides to move up, we should see NEO heading to the top of the channel to test 2500-2600.

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Taking a little bit of a break from the market. We should see a big move soon in one direction or another. Will come back and post some more analyses once the picture is clearer.

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Well, that was a short break. Looks like the market is TRYING to move up, although volume is low. We're at major resistance, so we can't see buyers giving up here. That said, NEO has moved up, as I expected after it broke its downtrend on ETH. The 2160-70 area has been strong resistance, but there's not much holding us back between here and 2400 if that breaks.

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And thar she blows!

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Well, it looks like we're not ready to have a sustained upwards move. As long as we can find support at broken resistance (and not retrace the whole pump), we should be good to consolidate as volume increases.

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So the market decided to drop again, and NEO's potential move up was halted for now. We've fallen back to the channel support, but things look a bit dangerous now.

註釋

NEO looking pretty iffy here. We've held the uptrend support, but we're sliding back down again. We need to see some big buys come in soon in order to push up to the bullish target (green X). Otherwise, we may slide down to the red X.

註釋

If we do happen to break down, we still do have support in the 1900-2000 area, so that would be the ideal area for a bounce. So far, NEO still seems to be experiencing bullish accumulation, and they have a major event coming up (DevCon)

註釋

We’re sliding out of the uptrend channel, but the market is starting to look like it wants to move up. If we do get a nice Bitcoin breakout here, we can see NEO rallying back up there pretty quickly. For now though, it’s looking pretty weak/https://stagnant.https://www.tradingview.com/x/YsiwOAdp/

註釋

So, we're continuing to see moves in the market that would normally produce major breakdowns, but as you can see, NEO is making an attempt to reclaim the uptrend. It may fail, but if it succeeds, it was a sign that we are still in a big accumulation range. The dumps by alts over the last day may indeed be a bear trap before a much bigger rally. The likelihood of this happening is increasing, but stay on your toes. Trading this chop is frustrating, which is why I see this as accumulation.

註釋

Looks like I was right in assuming that this whole area has been an accumulation zone. We had a "test pump" the other day, which quickly got sold, but we since slowly climbed back up, and are now above the previous high. Good sign for NEO.

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Daily RSI has found support at 60 (which is bullish). We may consolidate here for a little while longer, but it looks like my initial bullish idea was probably correct. We didn't even hit my bearish target upon the breakdown. I'm glad I didn't sell. Sooner or later, especially if Bitcoin doesn't drop hard here, we should target the high 2600 area once we break 2350.