Signs we're going to pullback hard -200ma is at 332, I've never seen anything not react to it's 200 daily MA. -At least 4 previous rejections (support and resistance) at this price -A 9 on the TD9 indicator (the numbers above the candles). Back test this, you NEVER mess with a 9 on a high timeframe lol. (9's are strong indicators of reversals) -All oscillators maxed, -Nasdaq is about to pullback also, (when nasdaq finally goes down, NFLX is coming with it) - Side note: Look back at my previous nasdaq chart, it is insane how well my zones are still playing out WEEKS later -Side note: Earnings on the 18th it looks like?
We're still "trending bull" on a daily timeframe so I'm being conservative putting my support at 305, but who knows how far we fall. As always good luck
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Update, After further analysis, I FOMO'd a little bitt,I should've done half position short at 332, and another half at 338. I will consider this play as incorrect at $342. It would be my first wrong call in a few weeks, but it happens to everyone haha
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Revising my Support 1 to $320 as my first shortside target, where I'll take profit and wait for the bounce off the daily ichimoku cloud and reshort. Then Support 2 as $305. where I'll fully close short. Let's see what happens Monday
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This was a a very solid play in theory, but didn't pan out the way I'd like it too. I took the loss, and bought puts again at 360, closing if we get above that somehow.
@teckno05 First off thanks for posting and that Nasdaq previous post has some nice zones. Can you help me understand what got you looking for the green support 1 on that previous post. I have to admit the Apple guidance and overnight dump had me taking profit on my great entry on the S&P from Dec 26th.
teckno05
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@CryptKeeper789, Support 1 was probably a Fib retracement level, and it's definitely a Horizontal support. I just checked to see if it was a Volume profile node also, and it was not, but the support 2 was a volume profile node (an area where price traded a lot). That's probably why price went there. My trading entries are pretty solid, and I always have a "support 1, 2, and resistance 1,2" its extremely rare that i get a trade so wrong that it rips past both. In this netflix trade I didn't realize how important that rule was and I went too heavy on 332 because I was sure it was going to drop there. I did short again at 340 but now I'm uncomfortable because I'm over extended. Still confident in the play though.
CryptKeeper789
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@teckno05, Thanks, good luck with the trade. I agree that we should see the broad market pull back next week.
teckno05
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@CryptKeeper789, when using longer timeframes, and log charts, sometimes the regular tool doesnt work ebcause its made for "Regular" charts. and you have to use the "fib channel" tool as a makeshift "logarithmic fib retracement" tool.
@harmvanboven, I'm not moving my stops back, I just realized I assessed resistances incorrectly. I will consider myself wrong at 342 and close short at 343. There's a resistance at 338 and a 341 "target" fib on the upside. NFLX hit the fib at 341, and went down. I'll consider myself wrong at 343. I bought a 340put for 1/18 expiry. Very close call, anda bit of a gamble, but I'm going to trust my TA and hold onto my balls and hold the position over the weekend. All the index's look like they're ready to drop, NFLX will go with it.
teckno05
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@teckno05, My bad I typed that response really quickly while multitasking haha. 342 Is probably the level I'd be seriously concerned, 343 closed.