NatGas: Itsy Bitsy Spider 🕷

The itsy bitsy spider climbed up the waterspout.
Down came the rain
And washed the spider out.
Out came the sun
And dried up all the rain
And the itsy bitsy spider climbed up the spout again.

Everybody knows this nursery rhyme, but for us, the lyrics go like this:

Itsy bitsy NatGas climbed up to the green span
Down came the rain
And with it NatGas ran.
Out came the sun
And dried up all the rain
And itsy bitsy NatGas started to climb again.

Or in other words: NatGas has risen up to the bottom of the green zone between $5.579 and $5.811 to finish wave 5 in green and wave i in orange. From there, it fell down dramatically until the bottom of the orange zone between $4.464 and $3.982, where it completed wave ii in orange. However, NatGas has already started to climb up again and has made it above the orange zone so far. We expect it to continue its ascent until the resistance line at $6.466 and to soar higher still. To implement our primary scenario though, NatGas must not fall below $3.536, otherwise it would drop further. We have estimated a 40% chance that this could happen.