Nifty Range Bound till 2024 possibility

2022年10月11日

This is for my personal reference to make myself remind about topics.

Nifty probably will remain range bound for at least next year or two till the inflationary effect are realized. Graph is possible prediction and not a confirmed one.

Global events with Impact
1. Rising Interest rates and Bond yields
2. Inflation effects and US Jobs report
3. War escalation
4. Sanctions which can increase the metal and fertilizer prices of raw materials. Causing ripple effect across sectors.
5. Crude and Gas prices
6. China Taiwan escalations
7. Fertilizer prices can cause food inflation and can climate change effects can be catastrophic.
8. Depreciation of global currencies to dollar will add to import costs affecting margins for many companies and interest sensitive sectors
9. Low income economies may fall in to un-recoverable debt effecting exports of non essential commodities and finished products.

Local Events:
1. Rising differences between political parties and some religious organizations.
2. Upcoming elections in 2024 and hung assembly can cause dents to the economical progress.
3. LAC and LOC escalations
4. Climate change impacting agricultural yields.
5. WTO restrictions to remove food subsidy in phased manner in coming years.
6. Drinking water issues due to extreme heat conditions.
7. Job generation
8. Crude Oil and Gas price escalations increasing deficit.
9. increasing trade deficit due to cost of Import rising due to rupee depreciation.