Chapter 4: Trading Fibonacci Levels & Extensions of Bull Cycle

Unit_of_Technical_Analysis:
Weekly Cycles
Chapter 4: Trading Fibonacci Levels & Extensions
of the Bull Cycle Fibonacci levels

Tools used:
1. Fibonacci

Time Frame: Weekly
Method:
1. We have got the Bull cycle of 2016-2020 here and we are measuring the moves on Fibonacci Retracement on 2012-2016 cycle.
2. We have got the Bull cycle of 2020-2023 here and we are measuring the moves on Fibonacci Retracement on 2016-2020 cycle.


Cycles within the Cycles:
1. Case 1: Trading Fibonacci Levels & Extensions (2016-20 Bull Cycle)

Dates: 19/12/11 – 2/03/15: We have considered the Fibonacci of Bull cycle with
4531.15 value on 19/12/11 as Level 0 and
9053.15 value on 02/03/15 as Level 1:

On 29/2/16, we got a Bear cycle low of 6825.8 while the 0.5 level was 6792.15, so we got a near perfect 50% retracement on a Bear cycle.

On 5/9/16, we got a High of 8968.7 which was below level 1: 9138.18, and after moving down took support on 26/12/16 around 7893.8 which was near 0.786 levels of 8152.28.

Between, 13/3/17 – 24/4/17 market consolidated around Level 1: 9138.18 and then gave an upward breakout
Again, we could see a consolidation around 1.272 level and finally market created a high around 1.618 levels.

If you check carefully, all major Support, Resistance and range had been around 0.5, 0.786, 1, 1.272 & 1.618 levels.


2. Case 2: Trading Fibonacci Levels & Extensions (2020-23 Bull Cycle)

Similar to case 1 if we consider the 2020-23 Bull cycle, we can find some movement around same levels
If you consider the
Dates: 29/2/16 – 20/01/20: We have considered the Fibonacci of Bull cycle with
6841.18 value on 29/2/16 as Level 0 and
12430.59 value on 20/01/20 as Level 1:

On 24/3/20, we got a Bear cycle low of 7511.1 while the 0.236 level was 8160.26, so we got a near perfect 0.236 retracement on a Bear cycle.

On 8/8/20, we got a support around 0.5 level of the range

Between 20/7/20 – 28/9/20 we got a consolidation around 0.786 level i.e. 11234.38

On 9/11/20,we got a breakout above 1 level i.e. 12430.59

Between, 28/12/20 – 1/2/21 market consolidated around Level 1.272: 13950.8,

Again, we could see a consolidation around 1.618 level between 7/6/21 – 31-7/21

The current consolidation happened around 2 level

If you check carefully, all major Support, Resistance and range had been around 0.5, 0.786, 1, 1.272 & 1.618 levels.

Observations:

If you check the weekly chart on Bull-Bear Cycle with Fibo Levels and Extension, we find Support-Resistance and Reversals around important levels like, 0.236, 0.5, 0.786, 1, 1.272, 1.618, 2, 2.618 levels

Conclusions:
1. Fibonacci retracement can be best used across multiple time frame