Market Update: Nifty Faces Bearish Pressure, 17-21st feb

Nifty closed at 22,929 this week, marking a decline of 630 points from the previous week's close. The index reached a high of 23,568 and a low of 22,774. As highlighted in my previous post, the bearish sentiment in Nifty remains intact, as both the monthly and weekly timeframes show negative trends. Until there is a significant reversal on these timeframes, the bearish outlook is expected to continue.

Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate Nifty will move within a range of 23,450 to 22,400. The 22,300/22,400 zone offers strong support, and if this level is breached, we could see Nifty heading towards the 21,800 levels. Given this volatility, Nifty might not be the ideal index for small investors, particularly those heavily invested in mid and small-cap stocks. Let’s now take a closer look at the mid-cap and small-cap indices.

The Mid-Cap Index is currently near its key support level of 48,700 on the monthly chart. If it manages to hold this support next week, a potential reversal could follow, offering some relief to investors. On the other hand, the Small-Cap Index is still far from its crucial support of 14,500, which suggests that we could witness further downside of 4-5% in this segment. This could add more pressure on small-cap stocks, which are already facing a tough environment.

On a global front, the S&P 500 has finally broken through the strong resistance at 6,100 and closed above this level. If it manages to sustain above 6,100, we could see it reach 6,225 or even 6,376. This could potentially provide some tailwinds for the Indian markets, but for now, it seems that the Indian market remains under the tight grip of bearish forces.

In conclusion, while there are some signs of potential recovery in specific indices, the overall sentiment remains cautious. Investors should stay vigilant, especially in mid and small-cap segments, as the road ahead could be bumpy.