NIFTY - Is it heading towards deeper correction?

2021年11月12日

1. Both of the charts suggest clearly that below 18,150 the market is only on Sale.

2. We have many tools on smaller TF to find the level to go short at. e.g. Daily/Weekly CAM Pivots / Price action derived Supply Zones / Trend Lines / Channels / Option Data.

3. On both charts we have a decisive upward slopping trend line in common (Green on left chart & Neckline in H&S one). It will act as support in both patterns.

4. Its the price action near this trend line that will guide us which pattern to follow. If prices find support at the confluence of trendline and Harmonic Pattern's retracement level, we may thing of going long.

5. Price breaking the trend line, will trigger ABCD pattern (Please refer the chart on right, its in blue color along H&S Pattern). Targets of ABCD are depicted in that case.

6. Another way of getting ABCD targets are to draw extension on X-A leg, as I have done on the chart on left. Keep these also in mind while chasing TGTs on downside.

7. Above 18,150 (Closing basis) we may turn bullish.

8. For now, no heavyweight in the Index from any sector is suggesting impressive long setup. Thus, lets remain cautious on long trades.

2021年11月19日

註釋

1. On 18th we managed to close above the TL after piercing it on spot but closed deep red in FNO without much pullback at the end.
2. 18th Nov move is a wide range candle that followed previous day narrow candle. Thus, 18th was a case of range expansion.
3. This expansion has not shown higher volume, means this wide range candle is not an actual climax, that normally happens towards the end of an extended move. This implies more pain ahead (पिक्चर अभी बाकी है)।
4. Now, what we can expect further on Monday is either inside bar narrow range candle or another expanded move downwards (unless there is a large gap down opening).
5. In case there is a narrow range inside bar, play next day on the side it brakes because market plays trick to weed out weaker hands at these levels.
6. In case of large Gap Down, its going to be a bear trap. Go long above open.
7. If there is a marginal Gap down, remain short to reach depicted fib level
8. I have not yet discounted the chart on left until 17,600 is not taken out.