🔸 Current Resistance: Nifty is facing resistance at the 50 DMA and the top of the wedge pattern.
🔸 Market Structure: The structure remains Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL), keeping the bearish trend intact.
🔸 Key Support Levels:
Pivot 1: 23,534 (must hold for bullish momentum). Recent Swing Low: 22,783 (breaking this could push Nifty down to 21,800).
🔸 Upside Potential: If Nifty consolidates tightly above Pivot 1 with small candles, a breakout could happen with target 24,200. However, expect challenges with multiple resistances ahead.
⚠️ Challenges to the Uptrend:
Average corporate earnings may limit optimism. Global factors like yields and economic data could act as headwinds. Nifty is below 50 and 200 DMAs, signaling weak sentiment.
📅 Key Upcoming Events:
RBI Policy Meeting: Interest rate decisions 🏦
US Non-Farm Payroll Data: Impacting global flows 📈
Quarterly Earnings: Heavyweights’ performance 🏢
Budget Announcements: Fiscal policy insights 🗂️
Global Factors: Fed updates and crude oil trends 🌎
MSCI Index Rebalancing
Summary:
✔️ Bullish View: A breakout above Pivot 1 may lead to 24,200. ❌ Bearish View: Breaking 22,783 increases the chances of a drop to 21,800.
👉 Nifty's upward journey won’t be smooth, so trade cautiously.