18 Jan ’24 — FIIs sold 20000 CR in 2 days, Nifty50 in trouble?
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 191pts ~ 0.88%. This does not seem to showcase what really happened during this week. We hit a new lifetime high of 22124 and then fell 839pts ~ 3.8% in 2 days. Something that we rarely see with Nifty.
16mts chart
Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
Recap from yesterday: “Yesterday Nifty was at the top end of the ascending channel and today it closed right at the bottom end. From 26th Oct 2023, Nifty has always respected the bottom part of the ascending channel. The next support comes up at 21491 and falling below that would also mean we are breaking the channel.”
4mts chart
The gap down ensured we broke the support at 21491. Further price action suggested that we may have some deep cuts today, but strangely Nifty reversed right at 10.00 at 21285 level. Not sure whether it was DIP buying, but we went past the resistance zone of 21491 by 11.59. Nifty did not have enough strength to get back into the ascending channel - but it managed to close near the SR level showing some respite.
FIIs sold over 20000 crores of equity over the last 2 days. When was the last time we had this high volume of selling? 20-25k crore is the approx. volume of transactions they do for a whole month - we got that in 2 days. What do they know that we retail traders don't?
63mts chart
Today’s price action has confirmed that the channel is broken, but not the support/resistance of 21491. If Nifty trades above 21491 in the morning session - the bears may really feel abandoned. Ideally, the next stop should be 21041 - that was where Nifty bounced off from the trendline on 21st Dec 2023. Our stance continues to be bearish until proven wrong.
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 191pts ~ 0.88%. This does not seem to showcase what really happened during this week. We hit a new lifetime high of 22124 and then fell 839pts ~ 3.8% in 2 days. Something that we rarely see with Nifty.
16mts chart
Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
Recap from yesterday: “Yesterday Nifty was at the top end of the ascending channel and today it closed right at the bottom end. From 26th Oct 2023, Nifty has always respected the bottom part of the ascending channel. The next support comes up at 21491 and falling below that would also mean we are breaking the channel.”
4mts chart
The gap down ensured we broke the support at 21491. Further price action suggested that we may have some deep cuts today, but strangely Nifty reversed right at 10.00 at 21285 level. Not sure whether it was DIP buying, but we went past the resistance zone of 21491 by 11.59. Nifty did not have enough strength to get back into the ascending channel - but it managed to close near the SR level showing some respite.
FIIs sold over 20000 crores of equity over the last 2 days. When was the last time we had this high volume of selling? 20-25k crore is the approx. volume of transactions they do for a whole month - we got that in 2 days. What do they know that we retail traders don't?
63mts chart
Today’s price action has confirmed that the channel is broken, but not the support/resistance of 21491. If Nifty trades above 21491 in the morning session - the bears may really feel abandoned. Ideally, the next stop should be 21041 - that was where Nifty bounced off from the trendline on 21st Dec 2023. Our stance continues to be bearish until proven wrong.
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