13th Dec ’23 - Nifty Stance change to neutral worked perfectly
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “But from a real price action perspective, I have changed my ultra short-term stance to neutral now. To gain back the bullish momentum, Nifty has to close above 21037. To go bearish, Nifty has to fall below 20691.”
4mts chart link - click here
Nifty does a classic U-turn today, around the 20770 levels. For a moment I thought the neutral stance was not working and we would have to go into bearish mode. A small pullback was expected, but a 180pts mammoth reversal was not there in my mind. From a headline perspective, we closed flat today, which means neutral stance continues for tomorrow.
4mts chart link - click here
Both BankNifty and NiftyIT orchestrated the U-turn. NiftyIT fell 781pts ~ 2.33% intraday to a session low of 32715 and then recovered 390pts ~ 1.19%. What this recovery did to Nifty was to shoot the bearish hopes in the leg. No matter what happens, the bulls are not giving room for the bears to breathe. The dip buying is so intense that I kind of feel its frothy.
63mts chart link - click here
Nifty is still above the ascending channel, the bulls are still in control. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting by FED. Any hints of not cutting the interest rates in 2024 may spook the US markets. We have the Nifty expiry tomorrow and as it stands the OTM premiums are pretty low indicating the option sellers are not expecting a big more tomorrow. In case we pick a direction tomorrow, the short sellers (PE or CE) will have to run for cover and that could spike the option premiums. I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow also and wish to go bullish above 21037 and bearish below 20702.
Recap from yesterday: “But from a real price action perspective, I have changed my ultra short-term stance to neutral now. To gain back the bullish momentum, Nifty has to close above 21037. To go bearish, Nifty has to fall below 20691.”
4mts chart link - click here
Nifty does a classic U-turn today, around the 20770 levels. For a moment I thought the neutral stance was not working and we would have to go into bearish mode. A small pullback was expected, but a 180pts mammoth reversal was not there in my mind. From a headline perspective, we closed flat today, which means neutral stance continues for tomorrow.
4mts chart link - click here
Both BankNifty and NiftyIT orchestrated the U-turn. NiftyIT fell 781pts ~ 2.33% intraday to a session low of 32715 and then recovered 390pts ~ 1.19%. What this recovery did to Nifty was to shoot the bearish hopes in the leg. No matter what happens, the bulls are not giving room for the bears to breathe. The dip buying is so intense that I kind of feel its frothy.
63mts chart link - click here
Nifty is still above the ascending channel, the bulls are still in control. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting by FED. Any hints of not cutting the interest rates in 2024 may spook the US markets. We have the Nifty expiry tomorrow and as it stands the OTM premiums are pretty low indicating the option sellers are not expecting a big more tomorrow. In case we pick a direction tomorrow, the short sellers (PE or CE) will have to run for cover and that could spike the option premiums. I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow also and wish to go bullish above 21037 and bearish below 20702.
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