Are you shorting the bounce or waiting for confirmation?

Japan’s Q1 GDP came in worse than expected: -0.2% QoQ (-0.7% annualized). Weak consumption, soft exports, and a fading external boost despite a weak yen isn't a great combo for Asia’s largest export economy.

The Nikkei 225 reacted immediately, and the H4 chart is starting to reflect deeper structural pressure.

🔍 Technical Outlook:
- Price reversed from the high of 38,745.
- Price is testing the 50 SMA and could enter the Ichimoku cloud.
- The cloud is signalling a twist, which could be a sign of momentum fading and the trend weakening or reversing.

📊 Projection:
If the price closes below the 50 SMA and breaks through the cloud, further downside could be expected, with the target levels at
- 36,800 (last consolidation zone), and
- 35,570 (38.2% fibonacci retracement level and 200 SMA).

Alternatively, if the bulls defend the cloud, we could see the price climb to the resistance level of 40,500

This is a classic macro meets technicals moment. A weak data print is lining up against the possibility of a technical rollover.