NASDAQ After Trump's Inauguration 25.01.21

Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ.

Monday’s Briefing Results
Chart:

Buy Position:

A breakout above the high occurred 45 minutes before the U.S. session opened, reaching the buy-entry zone at 21682.5.
While the target of 21812 was not achieved, the price increased by 95 points, generating approximately $1,900 in profit per contract.

Sell Position:

During the Asian session, after breaking the ascending trendline, a sell-entry opportunity emerged at the yellow box.
Following the entry, the price dropped by 183 points, yielding approximately $3,660 in profit per contract.

Total Results:
Based on Monday’s briefing, a total profit of approximately $5,560 per contract was achieved.

Daily Chart Analysis
Chart:

Due to Monday’s market closure, the daily candle for Monday has yet to close, and it will likely complete after Tuesday’s U.S. session.

Key Observations:

The sharp drop during the Asian session found support at the 20 EMA on the daily chart.
The 20 EMA is currently at 21387, and whether this support holds will be crucial in determining the market’s direction.

Bearish Scenario:
If the 20 EMA fails to hold, traders should prepare for a potential trend reversal.
Bullish Scenario:
Resistance was observed at the green box, particularly near the January 7 bearish candle’s high.
If Tuesday’s session closes above the 21806–21896.75 zone, it could signal a breakout above the supply zone and a trend reversal.
A critical point for buyers is whether the current price action can engulf the large bearish candle with a bullish one.

15-Minute Chart Analysis
Chart:

Key Insights:

During the Asian session’s sharp decline, the NASDAQ bounced off the upper boundary of the blue box supply zone.
However, it broke the yellow box ascending trendline, leaving uncertainty about whether the current rebound is a dead cat bounce or a genuine reversal.
The market may react strongly to the president’s inauguration speech and subsequent remarks, which could provide clear direction.
Recommendation:
At this point, trading either direction is a 50-50 probability. It’s advisable to wait for a clear breakout or breakdown before entering a trade.

Today’s Trading Strategy
Chart:

Buy Strategy:

Entry: Breakout above the yellow box high at 21779.
Rationale:
The sharp drop during the Asian session has broken the upward channel.
A breakout above the high would confirm that bullish momentum has returned.
Risk:
The next resistance is close at 21812, and whether this level is broken will be crucial for further upside potential.

Sell Strategy:

Entry:
Break below the ascending trendline, or
Break below both the trendline and the Asian session low at 21377.
Rationale:
The rebound during the Asian session occurred near the 20 EMA on the perpetual contract, making a clear break below this level necessary to confirm a trend reversal.
However, if the white box frame’s lower boundary isn’t completely breached, it’s difficult to confirm a full trend reversal.
Risk: Support at the daily 20 EMA.

Conclusion

The NASDAQ remains in a delicate balance, with potential for movement in either direction:

For buyers, the key focus is on breaking above 21779 and 21812 for a potential continuation of the uptrend.
For sellers, watch for a break below the ascending trendline or 21377 to confirm a trend reversal.
Stay patient, follow the levels closely, and trade strategically. 🚀