Cautious optimism to give way to December decline for NVDA

2024年12月3日

The sentiment around NVIDIA (NVDA) over the past 72 hours has been mixed but leans slightly positive. Here's what we see:

Analyst Views: Analysts remain bullish, with a strong "buy" consensus and an average price target suggesting a potential 21% upside from current levels. This reflects optimism about NVIDIA’s prospects, particularly with its leadership in AI and data center technology.

Seasonal Trends: Historically, December has been a weaker month for NVIDIA’s stock performance, with shares declining in 60% of Decembers over the past decade. However, this is typically followed by strong recoveries in the new year.

Investor Discussions: Investors 'round the Web are expressing cautious optimism. Some highlight concerns about high valuation and broader market headwinds, while others emphasize NVIDIA's long-term growth drivers like AI and semiconductor demand.

The overall mood suggests near-term caution due to seasonal and valuation factors but confidence in NVIDIA's long-term trajectory.

With all this said, we see cautious optimism leading to a rise to a key resistance level in the 144.00 price range, followed by a decline in December, fueled alongside the SPY's potential crumbling.

2024年12月10日

註釋

Since our post that cautious optimism did indeed give way to a slight rise to the $144.00-145.00 before dropping as predicted. NVDA closed at $138.80 Dec 09, going as low as $137.20.

We think it will reach the $132.50 area by end of December.

Be Alert.
Trade Green.

2024年12月13日

交易結束：目標達成

DECEMBER 12 UPDATE

On Dec 10, NVDA dropped to a low of 133.79, missing our target by just a little over $1 !!

A few things to consider:
1. A spinning top printed on the 8h/1D today (indecision).
2. SMAs are still green (positive trend).
3. RSI suggests a potential (short-term) rebound, BUT the breach of key support ($135 ish) and trading below the 50-day moving average indicate possible continued downward pressure.

We see further declines in December down to $132 area, although we are marking this now as initial target reached.

Be Alert.
Trade Green.