2/28/25 - $nvda and tape in the month ahead (LONG READ)

2/28/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NVDA
NVDA and tape in the month ahead (LONG READ)

- wild day y'day
- but let's set our feet and think ahead

- first on nvda, and i'm choosing to post my portfolio/ allocation on this name bc it's an important one for mkt sentiment, risk, geopol etc.

NVDA
5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- majority of world still thinks AI is a meme and on this topic, it's not. your job is now a meme. these chips have such a moat and demand that incremental margin doesn't matter. you're getting 0.5x PEG and 3.5% fcf yield. we're at the value region, anything lower (toward $100) and i'm considering that despair/capitulation and i'll take the LEAPS to 10%.

TSM
5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- geopol punching bag. if you had to pick one between nvda and tsm i don't think you could do it. they're so different and with respective moats. also about 0.5x PEG and 4% fcf yield. we're in value territory and a move closer toward $150 and i'd consider 10% LEAP size.

*pause* why 2-1 leverage V? isn't that risky? yes, leverage risky, but i'm keeping these ITM and have a keen sense for valuation in a 2Y context and want to express this view while keeping cash higher and hence ability to maneuver.

*moving on*

NXT
35% LEAPS (1.5x leverage)
- i've written extensively about this, but to the new crowd you check all boxes. a/ visibility for 1y of growth beats based on backlog and a sleeping consensus, b/ killer ROIC and cash generation, c/ cheap valuation (nearly 10% fcf yield on my #s, and still 7% on cons.), d/ buybacks coming on an underleveraged-cash-rich balance sheet in 2H and e/ the most important factor - an A+ CEO and leadership team

OBTC
20%
- closed end BTC fund trading 10% shy of NAV in last weeks, so way to get BTC exposure ("the king") at a discount in a rocky risk environment
- BTC remains a long duration beta, not yet getting the "wtf freak out" premium that gold has today (and probably bc it's not so well understood - that's cool - good to acknowledge it).
- goal is to stack sats, but diligently and carefully
- best to avoid leverage in the current environment
- would be a full position (i'd make it 30-40%) if/when BTC goes into high 60s or low 70s, otherwise I'm patient. BTC needs catalyst on monetary front to find new highs.

UBER
7.5% LEAPS (2x leverage)
- another one i've written about extensively, so check out details
- tl;dr is a/ orthogonal to any foreign content/ tariff BS, b/ great leadership team fwd thinking and on the forefront of AV (autonomous) despite the consensus that's wait and see, c/ growing margins, great returns and tremendous cash generation, d/ 6% fcf yield and sticky safe haven in this tape limit draw down risk, e/ multi-year compounder set and forget at current rate

*honorable mentions*

- names that i trade around, usually high frequency in/out, would perhaps consider larger positions if/when tape behaves. right now i'm only parking in stuff i a/ know really well, b/ see great value for participating and therefore c/ can size them reasonably large. i don't like having a complicated and smorgasbord of names in this tape.

NICE - cheapest B2B software moving the AI needle into their customers w good growth, high cash gen and heavy buyback incoming

$DECK/ YETI - the only two discretionary names (in a tough consumer) that are on my high watchlist given growth/ cash generation and combination of the two. tricky. needs to be managed carefully in this consumer-eat-dirt environment.

MU / ALAB - the two semis I think are interesting ex- TSM and $NVDA. MU for HBM being a key grower inside inference applications and probably massively understated on my math and ALAB bc they're able to offer some crazy performance benefits and the #s are outstanding w/ cash gen following.

BLDE - the only investable EVTOL business. the TMDX result was a "pass" and limited my ST interest here. I'd consider Blade to be a price inelastic Uber with no relevant competition. I'd also think Uber eventually buys these guys.

Hope that helps inform my thinking (as I'm sure I'd get a lot of DMs today) and wanted to spell it all out if you can incorporate into your mosaic/ own PnL.

I'd guess we're most of the way thru this sell-off despite what ______ is saying, mainly b/c we've had an asynchronous dip (so it's hard to notice) and each name has taken it's turn doing the -15% to -50% dump in the last 6-12 months (and especially many recently). The index isn't showing it b/c SVIX has been the stealth QE/ pins, but I digress. More for another day.

If you're reading this, you woke up today.
So you started with a big W.
Showing up with a positive attitude is a competitive advantage. Don't let that one go. You got this.

Lock in.

V