Use what happened to LSKBTC back in November when people sold the news as a case study here. You got multiple bear traps all the way down to one of its strongest support lines, where the 200 MA touched previously. I think we'll see something similar in NXT as I'm expecting a sell-off of Ignis and ARDR as soon as everything goes back online Jan 1st.
On that note I'd hold off on NXT to buy it around 3300 to 2700 range depending on how a likely BTC drop to 8600 levels will affect the alts.
I notice that the BB are squeezing, so a bear trap here may be ready to play out. I don't expect a trend change anytime soon, though.