NZDCAD 4H/Daily Long Idea to 0.94000 3.5/1

2019年1月27日

Here is a potential long position to 0.94000, I believe it is setup to be a good trade, however I wouldn't enter a position until price breaks the 4H resistance.

If you look at this chart on the daily timeframe, you will see that this pair had a large price surge, and then began to create a 'flag formation', however once I dropped it down to the 4H I noticed that price has broken out of a descending trendline, and already retested, which is a positive sign that there is good bullish momentum.

I've used 0.94000 as my first target for this position because it is the nearest round number below where my analysis indicates to place a target, which is where I had placed my weekly key level, which happened to line up with the 161.8 fib level to give me added confidence. I will add an update soon on my potential extended target.

For my stop loss I used what looked to be a good little support level just beneath where the retest of the trendline was, I think this will be a safe place to put it as I really can't see it coming back that low if price does in fact break the 4H resistance. All in all this position if entered effectively offers just over 3.5x what you are willing to risk.

This is a brief description of my though process when analysing this pair, and of course none of this is valid unless price does indeed give me the entry that I'm looking for. I also haven't looked at any indicators for this idea; I'm currently trying to see what I can do without the use of indicators, as I always see that first and it often makes me miss what price action is showing and 90% of the time will lead me to try and catch a reversal instead of just going with the trend.