Short Order: NZD/CAD

2016年2月15日

I have placed an order to short NZD/CAD @ 0.9240 which is the daily pivot point on Monday 15-02-2016. This is also in confluence with a 38.2 retracement on Friday's high to low.

I will place a stop loss just above R1 @ 0.9330. My target will 0.9000 where I will look to close out half the position and let the rest ride to break even.

SENTIMENT:

The CFTC report released on Friday showed WTI5 net long positions increase from 9k to just under 70k contracts. The CAD/USD also looks as though it could retrace further in the near term.

It is a bank holiday in the states tomorrow so I would not expect to see this trade move much until Tuesday.

What could go wrong...Oil prices continue to take a hit and NZD has a good week of data including retail sales, PPI Input and GDT Price Index.

I will review the sentiment daily to see if anything changes.

Appreciate comments back.

2016年2月15日

交易進行

Order was hit @ 0.9230

2016年2月15日

註釋

NZD Retail Sales came in slightly below expectations at 1.2% (Exp: 1.4%). This should support the trade.

2016年2月16日

手動結束交易

I have closed this trade manually with a 140 pip profit on the move caused by retail sales and inflation expectations from New Zealand. I have exited the trade at the price has moved 20 pips passed it ATR. It may be premature and advice has been given to look at the potential outcome of up and coming risk events as well as S/R, ATR and other technicals.