WEEKLY FOREX ANALYSIS | NZDCAD I 23 December to 27 December

2019年12月27日

On the fundamental side, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz repeatedly said in the past that the central bank would hike interest rates when the macro-data indicates it’s a must. Only in August, Canada has beaten all market expectations on high-impact reports, including monthly trade balance (-0.6B vs -2.3B expected), monthly employment change (54.1K vs 17.0K expected), unemployment rate (5.8% vs 5.9% expected) and CPI m/m (0.5% vs 0.1%). Only retail sales came in slightly lower than market forecasts with a reading of -0.2% vs -0.1%, mostly due to lower sales at gasoline stations. It’s also worth mentioning that the Canadian annual inflation rate hit 3% in July – a six-year high.

From a Monthly Timeframe perspective, NZDCAD has been respecting a downtrend channel, and has bounced off from 0.82759, which the last recorded lowest since July 2015.

From a Daily Timeframe perspective, a Short trade might be ready. NZDCAD has met with a strong resistance and support area area of 0.87061 to 0.87397. However, as I am writing this review, the price action has been retesting the 0.87386.

In a Timeframe of 4 hours and 1 hour perspective, NZDCAD is about to retest the Day Channel, potentially giving about 70 pips. To be sure, wait for a 4h candle go close and see if the prices are below 0.87388 or above, and if the point 0.87388 is being rejected. However, I will strongly suggest to look at a Buy Trade and not a Sell.