NZDUSD bears struggle with 200-DMA on RBNZ day

2023年2月22日

NZDUSD dribbles around a seven-week low as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 0.50% rate hike on Wednesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair fades the previous week’s bounce off 200-DMA amid a nearly oversold RSI (14). That said, bearish MACD signals and an early February reversal from a six-month-old ascending resistance line keep the sellers hopeful of breaking the 0.6185 DMA support. Following that, the September 2022 high of near 0.6160 acts as an extra filter towards the south, a break of which could quickly drag the quote to the last July’s bottom of 0.6060. It’s worth observing that the pair’s weakness past 0.6060 won’t hesitate to break the 0.6000 psychological magnet.

Meanwhile, recovery moves need a daily closing beyond the three-week-old resistance line, close to 0.6275 by the press time, to convince NZDUSD bulls. In a case where the Kiwi pair manages to cross the 0.6275 hurdle, the previous weekly top surrounding 0.6390 and the 0.6400 round figure could challenge the upside momentum. During the quote’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6400, the previously mentioned ascending resistance line near 0.6545 precedes the double tops marked during late 2022, around 0.6570-75, which will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls before retaking control.

Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar and hints at more downside on the RBNZ day.