$NZD v. $USD - Model Eyes 0.55462 | #RBNZ #kiwi #elliottwave

2015年10月15日

Friends,

Following is the current #kiwi chart, highlighting a few of the recent market geometries that have developed, such as an Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, which offered the mechanism of descent to the current levels, whereas a nascent Geo is now offering its own pacing, affording price a soft landing towards the Predictive/Forecasting Model target, which was defined this past August 17th, 2015 as:

TG-Lox = 0.55462 - 17 AUG 2015



A more developed analysis follows in the discussion thread, looking into greater technical details and offering the argument supporting further downside.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: 4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
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2015年10月21日

註釋

15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price has completed a 5-wave advance, implying that a correction is pending at this point. What is important to recognize here is that the current impulse is born out of its own correction from a massive preceding decline. Hence, there are two important points to keep in mind:

1 - A 5-wave correction is ALWAYS a zig-zag, thus expect a 5-3-5 internal development. In this particular case, we have the first 5 of the 5-3-5 construction, so what should ensue is a 3-wave decline resting ABOVE the origin of this new upward impulse.

2 - Any correction that follows a massive move would itself self-correct into significant depths, in the Fibonacci order of 0.618, or most often 0.786 or 0.886 - This is the depth that defines the EAGLE strategic method.

Hence, we need to answer only ONE question here: To what higher-low level would this correction from the current 5-wave of a 5-3-5 bring us to? To answer this question, I have draw a speculative ZZ in the chart, describing a probable decline from the current height, and a decline that would come into close alignment with the consolidation that preceded the current impulse:




If the current top holds, then we are looking at this potential interim development.

Best,


David Alcindor

2015年10月21日

註釋

ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

I have to say that I am particularly biased here, influenced by my own Geo, where points 3 and 4 are almost alway connected by a simple Elliott Wave zig-zag, as speculatively drawn in the chart above.

David

2015年10月21日

註釋

21 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price reversed as forecast, expecting a simple reciprocal geometry in the interim, such as an Elliott Wave ZZ, whereas net forecast remains bearish with target intact and in force:




David Alcindor

2015年10月28日

註釋

27 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


NZDUSD remains on task, expected to weave a simple #elliottwave correction:



$NZD USD #kiwi #RBNZ #forex


David Alcindor

2015年11月7日

註釋

07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains closely tethered to dashed forecast pathway ... There is no change in bearish target:



David Alcindor

2015年11月16日

註釋

16 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast pathway, nearing approximate support area as shown:



David Alcindor

2015年11月19日

註釋

18 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price bouncing off of forecast level, remains tightly adherent to dashed forecast pathway:



David Alcindor


PS: I would pay particular attention to the AUDNZD behavior as well - David

2016年1月7日

註釋

06 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed arrow forecast. Interim rallying remains high-probability to 0.70118/0.71354 range in the intermediate term. Long-term remains bearish with L/T target pending at 0.55462, as defined this past August 17th, 2015:



Best,


David Alcindor

2016年1月20日

註釋

19 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:

Rallying to forecast 0.70118/0.71354 range still in force:


David Alcindor

2016年4月3日

註釋

02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tightly tethered to dashed arrow forecast; Now nears target range of 0.70118/0.71354:


Best,


David Alcindor

2016年4月25日

註釋

24 APR 2016 - Chart update / Tech-Note:

Again, price remains strictly adherent to the forecast dashed line, ultimately hitting the 0.70118/0.71354 target range:


Predictive/Forecasting Model remains unanswered per open target pending at the bearish 0.55462 level, defined last August 2015.

Best,


David Alcindor

2016年6月10日

註釋

09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast lines, remains encapsulated within the 0.70118/0.71254 forecast range:

2016年6月10日

註釋

... (cont'd) ...



Bears prevail - Bearish TG-Lox = 0.55462 defined last August 17th, 2015 remains intact and in force.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年7月26日

註釋

26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

26 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the H4 level, a WW/Geo has completed, and price appears to rally slightly from the "Hit". Students of the CROW Code will see that a reversal is under way at this and scaled-down level, in support of the original WEEKLY chart, which continues to eye a bearish target defined last 2015 Summer (17 AUG 2015) as TG-Lox = 0.55462 - Link to original target setting in the comment field: bit.ly/2ahZUBt .:



For the fundamentally driven investors at this larger scale, look for the global dairy trade pricing in whole milk power over a 5-year period is shaping up into a bearish impulse in terms of an Elliott Wave formation, with recent oscillation terminating a 4th wave correction. Further downside is expected to carve lower lows, and thus to influence $NZD to carve lower lows - Here is a site for your leisurely perusal: globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/whole-milk-powder/

In terms of central bank intervention, a recent rate decline to 2.250 % from 2.500% on 03-10-2016 was likely influenced by significant slow down in the economies of immediate export targets (China, Australia) as well as from a global recessionary momentum that is likely to push that rate further down.

Over the past 12 months, RBNZ intervened 5 times, bringing rate from 3.500% to a current 2.250% at 0.250 increments. I would expect that further rate decline be in the agenda, anticipating further global slow down.

As the differential in Fed and RBNZ rates decreases, expect the $NZD vs. USD pair to decline significantly further down, to levels defined in the WEEKLY chart:



Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974