Last Friday, April 4th, 2025, crude oil decisively broke below a key long-term support level that had held strong since late November 2021.
This significant downside breakout, if confirmed, could mark a major shift in the oil market structure — potentially opening the door for a deeper decline.
Based on Elliott Wave analysis, it appears that wave B has been completed in the form of a contracting triangle, and we are now likely entering wave C. According to Fibonacci projections, wave C could extend down toward the $41–$44 range, which represents roughly a 28% drop from current levels.
From a chart pattern perspective, price action has also broken down from a descending triangle — a classic bearish pattern — with a projected target that aligns closely with the Elliott Wave count around $44.
Moreover, this entire bearish move, which began in early June 2022, fits neatly within a descending channel — further validating the confluence of technical signals.
Breaking below such a well-established support zone alone could be a strong bearish signal. But when this is backed by Elliott Wave structure, pattern projection, and broader macroeconomic concerns, it suggests a high-probability short opportunity in crude oil.
This significant downside breakout, if confirmed, could mark a major shift in the oil market structure — potentially opening the door for a deeper decline.
Based on Elliott Wave analysis, it appears that wave B has been completed in the form of a contracting triangle, and we are now likely entering wave C. According to Fibonacci projections, wave C could extend down toward the $41–$44 range, which represents roughly a 28% drop from current levels.
From a chart pattern perspective, price action has also broken down from a descending triangle — a classic bearish pattern — with a projected target that aligns closely with the Elliott Wave count around $44.
Moreover, this entire bearish move, which began in early June 2022, fits neatly within a descending channel — further validating the confluence of technical signals.
Breaking below such a well-established support zone alone could be a strong bearish signal. But when this is backed by Elliott Wave structure, pattern projection, and broader macroeconomic concerns, it suggests a high-probability short opportunity in crude oil.
相關出版品
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。