PBF Energy Dec '16 PUT SPREAD

This looks like a sure bet to me (and it's a good hedge against the SM Energy CALL SPREAD).

Buy: Dec '16 $22.50 PUT
Sell: Dec '16 $20.00 PUT

• Initial outlay: $120 (net debit)
  
• Maximum risk: $120 at a price of $22.50 at expiry
  
• Maximum return: $130 at a price of $20 at expiry
  
• BE at expiry: $21.30