Significant downside risk based on a combination of fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical factors. One major reason for this pessimistic outlook could be valuation concerns; the current stock price may appear overvalued relative to key metrics like earnings, revenue growth, or free cash flow. Additionally, regulatory risks play a large role, especially given PDD’s operations in China. Increased government scrutiny, the threat of tighter tech regulations, and the ongoing risk of U.S. delisting due to geopolitical tensions may all contribute to the bearish sentiment.
Slowing growth is another common concern. If analysts see evidence that user growth, spending per user, or revenue momentum is tapering off—particularly as competition from giants like Alibaba or JD intensifies—that could justify a lower target. On top of that, macroeconomic headwinds in China, such as sluggish consumer spending, youth unemployment, or a weakening property market, may further dampen expectations for PDD’s performance. Some bears may also point to transparency or accounting concerns, especially with the limited visibility U.S. regulators have into Chinese financial audits. If insider selling is also occurring, that may reinforce concerns that even company leadership lacks confidence in future prospects. Altogether, these factors can easily justify a sharply lower price target like $50 per share.
Slowing growth is another common concern. If analysts see evidence that user growth, spending per user, or revenue momentum is tapering off—particularly as competition from giants like Alibaba or JD intensifies—that could justify a lower target. On top of that, macroeconomic headwinds in China, such as sluggish consumer spending, youth unemployment, or a weakening property market, may further dampen expectations for PDD’s performance. Some bears may also point to transparency or accounting concerns, especially with the limited visibility U.S. regulators have into Chinese financial audits. If insider selling is also occurring, that may reinforce concerns that even company leadership lacks confidence in future prospects. Altogether, these factors can easily justify a sharply lower price target like $50 per share.
交易進行
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SL: 130註釋
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Also started out with a smaller position. More than likely we see some retracement up. I will load up on puts once we see price hit somewhere near 105-115
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Eyeing a little higher before I really dive into this trade.
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Possible tripple bottom for further upside but I will sit here patiently and wait :).
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triple*註釋
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DOWNSIDE IS COMING.註釋
Waiting for further confirmation its just sitting there.
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I think we get further downside. The puts are already sky high like 7.78 for the December 95 puts.交易結束：目標達成
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Gonna close out all of my contracts now. :)
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