PLMR Seasonality Idea till end of august

Hey guys,

this is a more statistical try.
Given the Seasonality indicator you can the the potential for PLMR in the months from may to august.

I calcuted four different cases.
1. red line: worst case scenario (-19.05%)
2. green line: best case scenario (+122,11%)
3. yellow line: average scenario (+42,83%)
4. purple line: all cases average scenario (+40,32%)

I calculated chances in Excel using the Min, Max and Averages of all months.
For example best case scenario:
May historical maximum win + June historical maximum win + July historical maximum win + August historical maximum win

or

min-min-min-min in worst case scenario.

Greetings
J.