PONY – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Setup

Summary
PONY is approaching a breakout zone after months of consolidation. The stock recently bounced off Fib retracements and is now sitting right at the apex of a symmetrical triangle. A breakout above $15.7–16.0 with volume confirmation opens upside toward $17.3 (Fib 0.236) and eventually $21.3 (prior high).

🔍 Technical Analysis

• [] Symmetrical Triangle: Long downtrend line (from Jan highs) converges with rising support line from the $4.1 low. Price is now right at the apex.
  [] Fibonacci (4.1 → 21.35 move):
  [] 0.382 = $14.8 (currently holding as support).
  [] 0.236 = $17.3 → first breakout target.
  
• 0.0 = $21.35 → cycle high / full retracement target.
  

Indicators:

• [] RSI: trending upward, holding mid-50s, momentum building.
  [] MACD: histogram near zero, potential bullish crossover if breakout occurs.
  [] Stochastic: recovering from oversold → typical breakout timing signal.
  [] ADX/DMI: lines tightening, signaling a likely volatility expansion.
  
• Volume: declining into apex – classic triangle behavior; watch for expansion on breakout.
  

🎯 Trade Setup

Breakout Scenario
Entry: $15.8–16.2 on daily close above triangle resistance with strong volume.
Stop Loss: < $14.3 (below Fib 0.382 and breakout invalidation).

Targets:

• [] T1: $17.3 (Fib 0.236).
  [] T2: $19.0 (swing resistance).
  
• T3: $21.3 (prior high).
  

Alternative Scenario (Fakeout / Bearish)

• [] If rejection at $16.0 → potential pullback to $14.8 support.
  [] Break below $14.3 would open downside toward $12.7 (Fib 0.5).
  

📈 Fundamental / Sentiment Context

• [] PONY operates in the autonomous driving / AI sector, a space attracting strong speculative flows in 2025.
  [] Sentiment in EV/AI-related stocks remains volatile; breakout setups tend to overextend both ways.
  
• Keep watch on earnings updates, partnerships, or regulatory news as catalysts.
  

✅ Execution Notes

• [] Look for confirmation with volume; no volume = higher risk of false breakout.
  [] Scale out partials at Fib targets; trail stop once above $17.3.
  
• Manage size carefully – high volatility ticker with rapid swings.
  

TL;DR
PONY is coiling at the apex of a symmetrical triangle. A breakout above $15.7–16.0 with volume can send price toward 17.3 → 19 → 21.3. Rejection at resistance risks a pullback to 14.8–12.7.