NDX/SPX Looks like a slower BTCUSD
已更新
There are a lot of technical facts displayed on the charts that should make the case very clearly that NDX/SPX (QQQ/SPY to get volume data) have very remarkable similarities with NDX/SPX is on the three day chart and BTCUSD on the daily chart. As such I think it is fair to use BTC as a leading indicator for what could be happening with NDX/SPX.
For those paying attention to crypto it has been taken over in part by the Wycoff patterns and people are scrambling to apply those patterns to their analysis. Plenty of work was done on BTCUSD and now people are looking for accumulation at these levels. I think that is a major mistake. Just as their is accumulation and distribution there is reaccumulating and redistribution where you reset for continuation. You can zoom in on NDX/SPX and do the exact same Wycoff analysis and you will be getting much the same results. I may do that as another post over the weekend as it deserves its own right up.
With NDX/SPX looking so bearish and the inter-relationship between all markets (due to prevailing interest rates, globalization, and the traders behind the screen) it seems that ultimately BTCUSD will be setting some lower lows and chartists should be looking for re-distribution, not accumulation. If none of this makes sense then I recommend you do a whole bunch of your own research and re-iterate looking for these patterns on trading view ideas for proper and improper applications. Here is the important thing... I heard way to many people say that the Wycoff Distribution Chart looked to perfect so they thought that it had to be fake somehow. But no, it triggered.
The main prediction of this analysis is that NDX is going to dump against SPY and in a very big way. There may even be a point where NDX is going down and SPX is going up for some considerable time but I think that is very unlikely. I think we are getting a very big move globally to the downside. I don't know what the news will be that will trigger the dump but it seems that it is coming within the next couple of weeks or so.
Initial Targeting for a Sensible bear market
As NDX/SPX is moving slower I also look at higher a higher time frame on the Keltner channels to help do some target setting and look for concurrence. With the monthly NDX/SPX on the left and BTCUSD on the weekly on the right we see that the charts still seem every similar in many respects. Price action was above the respective KCs and is now in the process of working its way downward.
If we get a high level of fidelity when it comes to the subsequent consolidation we could also see the same potential head and shoulders pattern beginning to take shape. Now BTCUSD hasn't triggered just yet. I suspect some more sideways action and when NDX/SPX is more completely in its bulltrap both will trigger close to one another.
A look at NDX and SPY shows that previously NDX has respected the Keltner Channels a lot more than SPY, and SPY often finds itself out of the monthly Bollinger Band. Might be interesting to see if that trend flips here during this next dip.
NASDAQ Bubble Pop Targeting
Unless we have a Great Depression like the 1920s and 30s the target setting for NDX/SPX is below the quarterly Keltner Channel. If you look closely you can see it seems that someone with a lot of money has used this chart before for the NDX/SPX price action to act so precisely at the orange arrows.
I am also not much comforted by the fact that these major indices are so close to major targets
Because BTC failed at its major target
disclaimers
This post requires a lot of patience to implement. You won't need to be so lightning fast to make these trades as you do on crypto though, and the crypto exchanges often go down so you don't get your order filled so buying the dips on and trying to sell the top could be more manageable. But if a bubble is ending individual equities could be blowing their top off so shorting too soon is a very big problem. Also I am not a financial advisor nor am I a CMT or other certified chartist.
If you are familiar with my TA then the chart below should be familiar. It is very bearish that the MTF VSTOP has appeared on NDXSPX. This will be a chart to watch and I think in short order price action will be slipping the 20 week again. If not and it is tested as support then this TA is in the process of being negated.
This idea is an expounding on my linked post which looks at higher time frames if you would like to see that analysis.
For those paying attention to crypto it has been taken over in part by the Wycoff patterns and people are scrambling to apply those patterns to their analysis. Plenty of work was done on BTCUSD and now people are looking for accumulation at these levels. I think that is a major mistake. Just as their is accumulation and distribution there is reaccumulating and redistribution where you reset for continuation. You can zoom in on NDX/SPX and do the exact same Wycoff analysis and you will be getting much the same results. I may do that as another post over the weekend as it deserves its own right up.
With NDX/SPX looking so bearish and the inter-relationship between all markets (due to prevailing interest rates, globalization, and the traders behind the screen) it seems that ultimately BTCUSD will be setting some lower lows and chartists should be looking for re-distribution, not accumulation. If none of this makes sense then I recommend you do a whole bunch of your own research and re-iterate looking for these patterns on trading view ideas for proper and improper applications. Here is the important thing... I heard way to many people say that the Wycoff Distribution Chart looked to perfect so they thought that it had to be fake somehow. But no, it triggered.
The main prediction of this analysis is that NDX is going to dump against SPY and in a very big way. There may even be a point where NDX is going down and SPX is going up for some considerable time but I think that is very unlikely. I think we are getting a very big move globally to the downside. I don't know what the news will be that will trigger the dump but it seems that it is coming within the next couple of weeks or so.
Initial Targeting for a Sensible bear market
As NDX/SPX is moving slower I also look at higher a higher time frame on the Keltner channels to help do some target setting and look for concurrence. With the monthly NDX/SPX on the left and BTCUSD on the weekly on the right we see that the charts still seem every similar in many respects. Price action was above the respective KCs and is now in the process of working its way downward.
If we get a high level of fidelity when it comes to the subsequent consolidation we could also see the same potential head and shoulders pattern beginning to take shape. Now BTCUSD hasn't triggered just yet. I suspect some more sideways action and when NDX/SPX is more completely in its bulltrap both will trigger close to one another.
A look at NDX and SPY shows that previously NDX has respected the Keltner Channels a lot more than SPY, and SPY often finds itself out of the monthly Bollinger Band. Might be interesting to see if that trend flips here during this next dip.
NASDAQ Bubble Pop Targeting
Unless we have a Great Depression like the 1920s and 30s the target setting for NDX/SPX is below the quarterly Keltner Channel. If you look closely you can see it seems that someone with a lot of money has used this chart before for the NDX/SPX price action to act so precisely at the orange arrows.
I am also not much comforted by the fact that these major indices are so close to major targets
Because BTC failed at its major target
disclaimers
This post requires a lot of patience to implement. You won't need to be so lightning fast to make these trades as you do on crypto though, and the crypto exchanges often go down so you don't get your order filled so buying the dips on and trying to sell the top could be more manageable. But if a bubble is ending individual equities could be blowing their top off so shorting too soon is a very big problem. Also I am not a financial advisor nor am I a CMT or other certified chartist.
If you are familiar with my TA then the chart below should be familiar. It is very bearish that the MTF VSTOP has appeared on NDXSPX. This will be a chart to watch and I think in short order price action will be slipping the 20 week again. If not and it is tested as support then this TA is in the process of being negated.
This idea is an expounding on my linked post which looks at higher time frames if you would like to see that analysis.
註釋
Similarities continue. Compare BTC on the daily with QQQ/SPY on the weekly. This suggest the targeting in the original post will still be good as well as we will enter a period of redistribution that could last over a year.
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