QQQ What could go wrong?

Bulls are riding the tailwind of weakening headline inflation, buyer-friendly rate outlooks, and AI/tech strength.

• ~61% of QQQ stocks are above their 200d SMA, but only ~48% above 50d SMA
  
• Need 60–65% stocks above 50d SMA
  
• New highs consistently > 8–10% of index components
  

Bears flag concerns around persistent core inflation, lofty valuations, technical caution, and long-term risk exposure—especially if QQQ’s momentum disintegrates

• Core CPI remains sticky (like the latest 3.1% YoY) which delays Fed cuts
  
• Geopolitical/tariff shocks hitting supply chains or tech exports
  
• Earnings misses from big AI names which reverses sentiment
  
• Yield spike above 4.4% on the 10-year (valuation compression)