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Probability Analysis Based on Technical Indicators:
1. Bullish Scenario (Rebound towards $16 or higher):
MACD: Signs of bullish crossover → 60% probability of continued upward movement.
Stochastic: Exiting oversold territory → 70% probability of upward momentum.
Bollinger Bands: Rebound from the lower band and approaching the midline → 50% probability.
Weighted Average for Bullish Scenario: 60% probability of reaching the $16 resistance level.
2. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown below $14):
If the price fails to break above the Bollinger midline and the MACD crossover is not confirmed → 40% probability of dropping to lower levels ($12).
Summary:
Bullish Scenario Probability: 60%.
Bearish Scenario Probability: 40%.
1. Bullish Scenario (Rebound towards $16 or higher):
MACD: Signs of bullish crossover → 60% probability of continued upward movement.
Stochastic: Exiting oversold territory → 70% probability of upward momentum.
Bollinger Bands: Rebound from the lower band and approaching the midline → 50% probability.
Weighted Average for Bullish Scenario: 60% probability of reaching the $16 resistance level.
2. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown below $14):
If the price fails to break above the Bollinger midline and the MACD crossover is not confirmed → 40% probability of dropping to lower levels ($12).
Summary:
Bullish Scenario Probability: 60%.
Bearish Scenario Probability: 40%.
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