Sicilian Defence
With tail risks making positioning very tricky, here we have a very good macro chart showing the high bar for any growth shock and how it weighs heavy on risk appetite.
All year long expectations around monetary policy easing have been in the driving seat while geopolitics shouts loudly from the sidelines. The protectionism we are seeing is already starting to show effects on global growth and with a soft backdrop the exposure to these shocks enhance.
Rotation is in full swing as we see large large hands move from equities to bonds, and from higher risk credit to lower risk, we naturally are seeing a rotation from cyclicals to defensives and finally into safe havens like Gold, Yen and Swiss Franc to a lesser extent.
Highly recommend all to bookmark this as a spike in VIX looks imminent..
To make a long story short, markets are on the back-foot and the sweep will unlikely come from lower growth, rather from an inflation or rates short-circuit. I will be drip feeding strategies around these flows over the coming weeks.
All year long expectations around monetary policy easing have been in the driving seat while geopolitics shouts loudly from the sidelines. The protectionism we are seeing is already starting to show effects on global growth and with a soft backdrop the exposure to these shocks enhance.
Rotation is in full swing as we see large large hands move from equities to bonds, and from higher risk credit to lower risk, we naturally are seeing a rotation from cyclicals to defensives and finally into safe havens like Gold, Yen and Swiss Franc to a lesser extent.
Highly recommend all to bookmark this as a spike in VIX looks imminent..
To make a long story short, markets are on the back-foot and the sweep will unlikely come from lower growth, rather from an inflation or rates short-circuit. I will be drip feeding strategies around these flows over the coming weeks.
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