Can SILVER BREAKOUT above 32.50?

2024年10月7日

Silver (along with every other beaten down commodity) exploded on the news of China's stimulus! Unfortunately for silver bugs "somebody" was lying in wait with a mighty big hammer when it poked its head above 32.50.

In a vacuum the fundamentals (supply/demand) are incredibly bullish. However in the macro context of China's housing and economic woes there is a bear case to be made for base and industrial metals. If Copper starts rolling over I expect Silver to follow. Raw cash injections might keep Chinese stocks afloat but I do not believe it alter the reality of the real economy and its effect on commodities.

In addition to the issues with China, the US is at serious risk of a recession. 50 basis point cut has never been bullish. If you take the time to look at the last initial 50 basis point cuts it might curb your enthusiasm. I know... this time "its different"

TECHNICALS:

Silver may retrace to the $30 breakout level.... Great re-entry... if it holds... ( ;

If Silver is able to hold above 32.50 the rally remains intact.

2024年10月8日

註釋

Copper is dumping as expected and silver is coming along for the ride. Silver trying to hold $31 level. I will take some money off the table here.

2024年10月9日

交易結束：目標達成

That was quick! I am not a buyer. Waiting to see how the price action unfolds...