CDS's on Silver USD/OZ
Short silver in the short/mid term, buy long term.
With so many impulses on all timeframes my analysis led me to identify Wyckoff Phases across these time periods and in confluence with each other. For ease I will only be looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes.
The Wyckoffian Logic would suggest an accumulation (eventual price increase) or distribution phase (eventual price decrease).
MONTHLY
On the monthly timeframe (orange rectangle/lines and txt) ,in the mid/long term) I believe we are in the accumulation phase, currently in phase B and nearing the end of this period.
In the next phase (C) I would expect the “spring/purge” where price will drop at a low near to US$17.55 followed by a price bounce upwards. This US$17.55 or around about would be the lowest price and a great buy-in for Silver. However, price will test resistance US$18.89-US$20.70 as it moves upwards from here, and there will be other chances to buy-in just not at its lowest price. Of course from this low I will be LONG SILVER.
In Phase D we will see the price increase eventually showing “signs of strength” (Wyckoff patterns) around the US$26.18 mark where it will find resistance once again. At this resistance there will be price bounce before entering:
Phase E, where price will breakout and we will see a LARGE price increase. The price of Silver will test previous highs (US$35.38-US$49.85) or above.
We should see a volume decrease from the monthly “selling climax” to about the “spring/purge” (yet to take place) where volume will increase during the “breakout”.
WEEKLY
What is price going to do now, what about a shorter timeframe; Weekly - (red rectangle/lines and txt).
At this timeframe I believe we are in the distribution phase at the end of phase D showing “signs of weakness” and expect the price the further decline. Short term I am SHORT Silver.
In phase E price should continue to sharply decline eventually testing the price of US$20.70 where it will find resistance and bounce upwards. This should be short lived as price will then continue on a downhill trajectory to US$18.89 and ultimately to about US$17.55
CONFLUENCE
On the weekly timeframe the “spring/purge and the “return to origin” are clearly defined. This price range makes up the wyckoff distribution pattern, and in the monthly timeframe as price makes a 3rd attempt to break above and fails, it makes the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. This price drop in the future (US$17.55) is as expected as the market makers need to collect liquidity before heading to its highs.
Currently in the weekly timeframe we can assume that we could be in the “sign of weakness” stage as we are testing price of US$22.70 which is where price tested previously in the “automatic rally” stage in this weekly pattern. This should indicate we are at the very end of this cycle and about to enter phase E where price will breakdown.
Phase E on the weekly timeframe (distribution) is near completing a Phase B pattern on the Monthly timeframe (accumulation).
On the monthly timeframe Phase C will begin from about US$20.65 which will be Phase E on the weekly.
CONCLUSION
I am SHORT Silver with my Wyckoff Distribution and Accumulation analysis in the short/midterm.
The price of Silver will keep dropping. The price will eventually come down further to about US$17.55. From here I will be LONG Silver and hope to see prices in the long run to test previous highs (US$35.38-US$49.85) or above.
Please leave a comment on your thoughts.
See Wyckoff schematics here: school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
With so many impulses on all timeframes my analysis led me to identify Wyckoff Phases across these time periods and in confluence with each other. For ease I will only be looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes.
The Wyckoffian Logic would suggest an accumulation (eventual price increase) or distribution phase (eventual price decrease).
MONTHLY
On the monthly timeframe (orange rectangle/lines and txt) ,in the mid/long term) I believe we are in the accumulation phase, currently in phase B and nearing the end of this period.
In the next phase (C) I would expect the “spring/purge” where price will drop at a low near to US$17.55 followed by a price bounce upwards. This US$17.55 or around about would be the lowest price and a great buy-in for Silver. However, price will test resistance US$18.89-US$20.70 as it moves upwards from here, and there will be other chances to buy-in just not at its lowest price. Of course from this low I will be LONG SILVER.
In Phase D we will see the price increase eventually showing “signs of strength” (Wyckoff patterns) around the US$26.18 mark where it will find resistance once again. At this resistance there will be price bounce before entering:
Phase E, where price will breakout and we will see a LARGE price increase. The price of Silver will test previous highs (US$35.38-US$49.85) or above.
We should see a volume decrease from the monthly “selling climax” to about the “spring/purge” (yet to take place) where volume will increase during the “breakout”.
WEEKLY
What is price going to do now, what about a shorter timeframe; Weekly - (red rectangle/lines and txt).
At this timeframe I believe we are in the distribution phase at the end of phase D showing “signs of weakness” and expect the price the further decline. Short term I am SHORT Silver.
In phase E price should continue to sharply decline eventually testing the price of US$20.70 where it will find resistance and bounce upwards. This should be short lived as price will then continue on a downhill trajectory to US$18.89 and ultimately to about US$17.55
CONFLUENCE
On the weekly timeframe the “spring/purge and the “return to origin” are clearly defined. This price range makes up the wyckoff distribution pattern, and in the monthly timeframe as price makes a 3rd attempt to break above and fails, it makes the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. This price drop in the future (US$17.55) is as expected as the market makers need to collect liquidity before heading to its highs.
Currently in the weekly timeframe we can assume that we could be in the “sign of weakness” stage as we are testing price of US$22.70 which is where price tested previously in the “automatic rally” stage in this weekly pattern. This should indicate we are at the very end of this cycle and about to enter phase E where price will breakdown.
Phase E on the weekly timeframe (distribution) is near completing a Phase B pattern on the Monthly timeframe (accumulation).
On the monthly timeframe Phase C will begin from about US$20.65 which will be Phase E on the weekly.
CONCLUSION
I am SHORT Silver with my Wyckoff Distribution and Accumulation analysis in the short/midterm.
The price of Silver will keep dropping. The price will eventually come down further to about US$17.55. From here I will be LONG Silver and hope to see prices in the long run to test previous highs (US$35.38-US$49.85) or above.
Please leave a comment on your thoughts.
See Wyckoff schematics here: school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
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