We got some favorable seasonal price action in Silver with some sort of bottom in December, coupled with a little safe haven buying as a result of the stock market sell-off. Looking suspiciously like a short covering rally against a potential double bottom going back to December 2015. The rally out of the bottom doesn’t have the oomph you would expect out of a new bull trend. The dollar is also still very strong, and I’m expecting a bounce into the New Year out of the stock market. This move has climbed over the 200 day moving average, and I expect it to continue at least to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at ~ $16. After that we’ll see. Personally, I’m expecting a resumption of the bear trend at that point into a major cycle low in the Summer. Stock market sell-offs tend to suppress the price of PM’s as all assets wind up getting sold, and it just feels like there is a deflationary event about to hit…
Might be a good opportunity to sell some calls against a paper Silver position, and drag one’s feet for a couple months if dollar cost averaging in… Otherwise, Stack On!
Might be a good opportunity to sell some calls against a paper Silver position, and drag one’s feet for a couple months if dollar cost averaging in… Otherwise, Stack On!
評論:
Though this idea is still possible, laying out the cycles for the coming year, my current thinking can be found here:
