🟨 Case against Averaging Down - Stage Analysis

2022年11月20日

Averaging down is rejected by all big Market Wizards.
The problem is that the stock can always go another -90% down.
The example of SKLZ shows that after 19 consecutive times the stock decreased -20%, it no where near the average dollar price, if you buy same amount after each 20% decline.
In fact, it has to move +300% to get to break-even. How many of your stocks do that?

Do you see now, why probabilities are not in your favor.

PS if you think this is just a crappy company look at GE in 2007-2009.