SOL – Compression at Resistance II

Solana remains locked in a corrective sequence, unwinding from the mid-June $164 high. Price has now respected a clearly defined descending trendline, recently validating it with a third consecutive rejection—establishing it as dominant short-term resistance. Compression is now occurring just above a well-tested 2H order block near 144–139, where bulls must respond or risk cascading into inefficiency zones.

Structural and Momentum Breakdown:

Descending Resistance Structure: Three clean rejection wicks off the same trendline establish this as firm structural resistance. The latest failed bounce confirms this diagonal as active seller control.

Fib Cluster Rejection: Price has struggled below the 50–61.8% retracement (152–155 zone) from the June high, marking that cluster as distribution resistance.

Volume Profile (VRVP): Sitting atop a low-volume pocket between 144.88 and 139.71; below that lies high-acceptance around 132.

Volumized OB Zones: 2H OB between 144–139 overlaps with key support shelf—any breakdown from here opens path to 132–129 range sweep.

RSI: Persistently sub-40 with no bullish divergence—momentum continues to degrade.

PVT: Flat-to-declining, showing no inflow response to support retests—suggests buyers are stepping back even at local lows.

Example Trade Strategy:

Bullish Reclaim Setup:

Entry: Only with breakout and 2H close above 152–153 (above OB and breaking descending resistance).

SL: Below 144.50 (reclaim invalidation).

TP1: 158–160 (Fib 78.6%)

TP2: 164 (100% retrace)

Confirmation Criteria: RSI >50 + breakout volume + PVT uptick.

Bearish Continuation Setup (If OB breaks):

Entry: 2H close under 144.88, confirming OB loss and trend continuation.

SL: Above 148.

TP1: 140

TP2: 138

TP3: 132–129 (macro demand + HVN)

Confirmation Criteria: Momentum stays sub-40 RSI, increased sell volume, and continued PVT drop.