Daily EMA 55 needs to move above EMA 200!!

5 天前

My general bias for Solana is bullish.  However, the current setup is very similar to the setup in Feb-Apr 2022 before Solana started a macro bear trend.  (see blue rectangular box)
I am still waiting for a long trade opportunity. I am not looking for a short trade. I just need to sit tight and see how the price is going to unfold in the next few months in the daily chart.


The 2022 setup (see blue rectangular box in the chart):
1) EMA55 crossed below EMA 200 on 16th Feb 2022.   (red vertical line in the chart)

2)The price found the temporary floor around $80 and sharply moved above both EMA55 and
200.   (see light blue rectangular box)

3) It was the dead cat bounce. It was the beginning of the macro down trend.  

4)The price spent months and months under $40 in 22 and 23, however, the price eventually
broke above both EMA 55 and 200 and when EMA55 crossed above EMA 200 in Oct
2023 (red vertical line in the chart), the macro bull trend started.  

The current setup (see orange rectangular box in the chart):
1) EMA 55 crossed below EMA 200 on the 4th March 2025.

2) The price moved down to $95 area and sharply moved above both EMA 55 and EMA200.  However, it failed to stay above them.   

3) The price has been oscillating between $140 and  $18. The price is still below EMA55 and EMA200.  (see orange rectangular block)


In order to start a strong bull trend, 
1) the price needs to close and stay above EMA 55 and EMA200.
2) EMA 55 needs to cross and stay above EMA 200.    EMA55>EMA200
3) MACD and RSI need to enter the bull zone.  


EMA55 and EMA200 do not cross easily (I mean decisively cross). It only happened three times since 2022, however, when they cross, the price moves very aggressively in one direction.   

I think Solana is bullish fundamentally. I am not suggesting it is going to start the macro bear cycle. I am pointing out the price is still not showing a clear direction. From a technical analysis point of view, it might take some time before the trend forms. For now, it is only testing my patience!

3 天前

交易進行

Solana price action has been pretty bearish in the daily chart.   As I wrote yesterday, I have been patiently waiting for an opportunity for a long trade. 

The price is currently under all EMAs .   MACD and RSI are both in the bear zone.      However, the price has dropped to $147 zone,  where the order block is and the price has been hovering in that zone for quite some time.  
When you go into the lower time frame such as 4H and 1H charts, although momentum indicators.are still in the bear zone, it is starting to show positive divergence. 
Also, strong bull candles are starting to form at the support level.  It is still too early to enter a trade, but if  the price can stay above the current support zone ($145), there is a chance for Solana to start moving to the upside.