Panic if SPX500 Moves Well Below 2870 and If Volume Stays Low

2019年4月9日

If a move below 2870 begins and starts to gain momentum to the downside, then we will start to see a head and shoulders pattern form which is exactly the same type of pattern that formed in the SPX500 right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. Keep in mind though, its not the intrinsic nature of a head and shoulders pattern to cause a downward move, but rather what the trading psychology of the pattern tells us about the broader market. In short, it suggests that the euphoric momentum that brought us to record highs can no longer be sustained. When we pair this with volume, we can see that this recent drive to record highs in 2018 is accompanied by significant doubt. Low volume in an uptrend is a big red flag. Oh and by the way, if volume does not pick up later in the day, it'll be the lowest daily volume since 2003. This is starting to become a real concern. So too would a head and shoulders pattern if it develops.