From a long-term perspective, I see a short setup building on the S&P 500 index. The anticipated rate cuts in the U.S. — which I believe are coming soon — have historically led to market declines, despite the common perception that lower rates are bullish for equities.
Additionally, the market appears overheated: P/E ratios are at extreme highs, more than 50% above historical averages.
Given this, I expect we’ll see a downside move soon.
Since markets tend to rise slowly but fall quickly, I’m beginning to build a short position in advance. Stops may get hit, and re-entries might be necessary, but overall I see more reasons supporting this thesis than contradicting it.
Additionally, the market appears overheated: P/E ratios are at extreme highs, more than 50% above historical averages.
Given this, I expect we’ll see a downside move soon.
Since markets tend to rise slowly but fall quickly, I’m beginning to build a short position in advance. Stops may get hit, and re-entries might be necessary, but overall I see more reasons supporting this thesis than contradicting it.
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