As you may know, the SP500 has been rallying since the FED chairman, Jerome Powell, pivoted to a more easy interest rate policy. Moreover, it has also been pushed by signals indicating that the United States and China could reach a trade agreement soon and that could end as well the government shutdown. Tomorrow, 14/02/2019 and 02/15/2019, senior officials of both countries will meet to find a solution to their disputes.
Despite this good news, my fundamental and technical analysis indicates that Wall Street will soon fall for the following reasons:
- The stupendous results of the companies in the last quarters, due to tax cuts, are decreasing. Wall Street is already showing worse results than the previous quarter.
- There is still a lot of uncertainty around the world, even so, the SP is close to historical maximums.
- Technical analysis shows a clear resistance at current levels, which will be overcome only in the event that the USA and China reach a commercial agreement.
- There has been a 36% decrease in short positions in the last three days, indicating a possible change in trend.
I personally will open a short position IF ALL the points mentioned below are met:
- USA and China do not reach a commercial agreement in the coming days.
- The RSI and the MACD break down.
- The SP500 breaks the uptrend line.
Despite this good news, my fundamental and technical analysis indicates that Wall Street will soon fall for the following reasons:
- The stupendous results of the companies in the last quarters, due to tax cuts, are decreasing. Wall Street is already showing worse results than the previous quarter.
- There is still a lot of uncertainty around the world, even so, the SP is close to historical maximums.
- Technical analysis shows a clear resistance at current levels, which will be overcome only in the event that the USA and China reach a commercial agreement.
- There has been a 36% decrease in short positions in the last three days, indicating a possible change in trend.
I personally will open a short position IF ALL the points mentioned below are met:
- USA and China do not reach a commercial agreement in the coming days.
- The RSI and the MACD break down.
- The SP500 breaks the uptrend line.
註釋
Finally, the conditions did not meet requirements, therefore we did not open the trade.取消訂單
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