2277 could be very interesting short

I didn't have much interest shorting equities but this setup is worth the risk. 11pts for potentially 100+. New year's around the corner and bulls are making room for bears to play. If this works out, can add more shorts on break of lower trend line.

交易進行

First set of shorts are in

註釋

Tightened stop to just above the 77 high. A strong bear response should be pulling a strong close below 2270.

註釋

Daily candle close looking good to go bear. I'll be adding positions with the trade plan - shorts with sl strict 2288

註釋

If bears break down 2247 before retesting high then I'll consider 2277 as the top. At this time this remains a high risk trade - can still short but 2288 is SL and can get hit

註釋

There's no bearish impulse move down that I can positively identify. So this is the flat correction I'm tracking as TP target - 2242 gap fill.

I'm assuming the market would hike SPX up for year end audit assessment so there ought to be more chances to short.

註釋

Tracking update. If I wanted to buy SPX I would look to long with this setup

註釋

Look to TP the next dip and bounce off around 2243-2237 area. Risk 11-gain 40 was a decent trade.

註釋

Strike at 2232 was a good TP point. I took off profits but 2277 top/2288 SL is still valid.

There are 2 scenarios I'm looking for now:
Bear: Price needs to make a new low before closing above 2256. Then I'll want to see a 5 wave move up that fails high to confirm 2277 as major top and short for 100 points (tp 2170) is live.

Bull: Price wicking off 2231 should break 2277. We can still short between 2277-2288. Risk is tiny.

Happy new year everyone.

手動結束交易

My actual close was 2242. The price wick off 2232/31 broke 2277 as expected. I'm not shorting because h4 still in wave 4 bull. So I'm waiting to see wave 5 trips the 2288 and invalidate this short setup. If not I consider its a 5th wave failure and very bearish.

註釋

I'm not shorting again due to possible ending diagonal as 5th: