SPX 2W Candle Pattern: Lower High low w/ Low Probable.

2019年3月23日

We are on the 2 week timeframe so you can clearly see what is going with the candles. We have clearly painted the beginning of a reversal candlestick structure with the pin and then red rejection at last attempt to the upside. This creates our first official lower low as we go to retest the 100 MA (which is just the 200w since we doubled timeframes. I have been calling for sub 2200 as a target for a the first real wave down and then as low as 1500 as a secondary target. A head and shoulders formation would put us back down to curious low of $666 before creating the right shoulder.
SPXU is the inverse x3 ETF of the S&P and like many ETFs it can trade at a premium or a discount and as the SPX set a lower low SPXU set a double bottom, so your chance to basically sort the market now with SPXU is as good as shorting SPX in October, if not better with all bullish divergence The right chart shows potential targets if we hit significant levels on the way back. A head and shoulders calculation isn’t shown yet, that is hopefully to far away. But the gains are there, and they are massive. And a final not on SPXU, look at the volume we have experienced there. About a billion have been placed on SXPU with just those last 4 green candles.


I have been writing on the SPX since October The analysis is fundamental, long term, and pretty hard to deny. I need to write another couple of posts on my recession watch series, that should be done before the weekend is over.

2019年3月30日

註釋

For the last two periods within our rising wedge we have a dragongly doji and a spinning top indecision candle. The real bodies continue to be small and the indicators look like they are on the verge of rolling over.

I am a bit surprised to say it but the SP 500 might just kiss 2,900 before it gets it big rejection, and we have about 3 more weeks before the wedge support and resistance meet.. Rising wedges to break to the upside about 1/3d of the time and that potential is always there and you should protect against that but I remain certain we will be having a red bloody year.

2019年5月11日

註釋

Ok, finally time for another post as we painted another red candle on the two week timeframe. The MACD and RSI won't really show changes properly until you start getting changing candle colors and when you do the RSI especially kinks rather quickly.

The black line shows your classic bearish divergence that created our first top. The blue lines show we had a double top with the indicators showing a complete absence of strength. The arrows show that this two week period had the highest volume in the last 8 candles so there was a lot of interest in selling.

Below is the 2w and 1w chart of the stocastic and stocastic RSI. The weekly situation is begining to look grim as we approach 80. The Bi-weekly situation looks simular to the last peak and so I expect another clean bearish cross and the indicators to go to the grave.

And between here and there the exchanges made it so you can't get data without a paid package so this post has been using SPY as SPX is unavailable to me.