We Now Have Conditions for Limit Down Days in SPX

4月9日

Massive intraday pop today but it did not manage to advance much past the last high.

The size of the move today means if we had a big one day rejection of it that would now be a limit down day.

Which this specific thing does not have to happen (could down trend over a few days) break the low in this setp would give a strong case for limit down days to come.

It's not a term I use loosely.

In an optimistic outlook today we have a bullish wave 3 and the foothills of a new uptrend (or at least bull trap).

But if today rejects and turns out was a big bull trap - then we'd be about to head into the crash section of the move.

If you think it's been crashy so far - know that the second half is not slower than the first.

4月9日

交易進行

Big positions on now.

Stop is over the 2.20 fib. A bit before 5550.

4月10日

註釋

Likely one more spike and then positioning time to try for this.

4月16日

交易結束：目標達成

If this is to be, it's coming soon.

The day after I posted this we traded 6% down (closest to limit down since 2020). I flipped long into that drop and was fairly optimistic for a while but the easy bull setup failed today.

If the bear thesis is correct, we have way above average odds of limit down days ahead of us.

And even if not, some nasty selling.

4月16日

註釋

Could get real nasty

4月17日

註釋

Case for an impending crash.

4月17日

註釋

Things can get scary bad here if we end up breaking again.

5100 was a massive support level. Can be supported in many different ways and the most obvious one is it was a retest of the 2022 high.

If it turns out this is a dead cat off the 2022 high (and this would be valid even with more of a spike) things can get really bad.

A break of that level I think would mark a transition from the daily downtrend being fairly slow and organised to it being a real strong crash event.

If this isn't a low made then it'd be likely we're very early in the bear move. All we've seen recently would be the "Denial" stage of the break cycle. That is very early in the break.

4月17日

註釋

It's not sensationalism to say we're now at a point where if we break the big lows again a crash becomes more probable than possible.

It would be the more probable situation that we were in a downtrend and we had put in a sharp ABC correction.

And if that condition is true, then a crash is essentially certain. Because what would be called for next would be trend development and a trend comes in the slower steady build up phase and then the sensational stage.

Happens just the same in uptrends and downtrends.

So IF the condition is true that we've seen a trend correction, then the odds of a crash on the next breakout would be very high.

This would be highly likely to happen within the next 8 months if it was on the table. It'd only take 2-3 months to make the bulk of the move. Specific timing is hard to estimate because it'd hard to know how many months we may have range type of action (dojis etc).

4月17日

註釋

This wouldn't be an event you'd want to try to "Ride out" on the bull side. Things would get very very nasty.