Long term Market Forecast - Up for next 12 months before Crash

2022年9月2日

In the DOT COM bubble + Financial crisis of 2007–2008, the market tops happened in September.
The market bottoms happened in February in both occasions.
How crazy is that!!!!! The tops and bottoms happened in the same month!!!

The crashes lasted 2.5 years and 1.5 years.

The next crash will be MAJOR (because we've been going up so much for so long) so it'll be more like the DOT COM bubble. I would say 2.5 years.

The next market top will be in one year, September 2023.
The crash will last 2.5 years like the DOT COM crash.
The bottom will be in February 2026.

Tops happen when :
- Unemployment starts rising.
- Yield curve starts going down
- Federal funds rate starts going down

Notice how closely the Yield curve (US10Y -US02Y) follows the Federal funds rate. They are almost identical!! Crazy!

A crash happens when no one is expecting it! Too many bears right now!

We have another year of bull run before a major crash!

What is your opinion on this hypothesis?

2022年9月4日

註釋

Some of the ideas expressed in this chart come from Games of Trades, one of my favorite finance YouTube Channel.

Follow them for some of the best Market Insights.

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