"I've marked each time the yield curve spiked and when the Fed made pivots in the history of the federal funds rate. I’ve also added U.S. recessions and the Sahm rule to give you a clear indication of what these combined signals are saying."
Yield Curve: Every time the yield curve shoots up, especially after an inversion, it often signals upcoming economic turbulence or a recession.
Fed Pivots: When the Fed stops raising rates and begins cutting them, it's typically just before or during a recession. These pivots indicate when the Fed is stepping in to stabilize the economy.
Recessions: I’ve marked recessions too. They usually follow the signals of the yield curve and the Fed’s shift in policy.
Sahm Rule: This is an unemployment indicator that signals when a recession is very likely, even before the full economic impact is visible.
Thanks to George Gammon for educating me on most of this..
Yield Curve: Every time the yield curve shoots up, especially after an inversion, it often signals upcoming economic turbulence or a recession.
Fed Pivots: When the Fed stops raising rates and begins cutting them, it's typically just before or during a recession. These pivots indicate when the Fed is stepping in to stabilize the economy.
Recessions: I’ve marked recessions too. They usually follow the signals of the yield curve and the Fed’s shift in policy.
Sahm Rule: This is an unemployment indicator that signals when a recession is very likely, even before the full economic impact is visible.
Thanks to George Gammon for educating me on most of this..
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